Betfair trading – Horse racing – Profiting from a late move
Articles Blog

Betfair trading – Horse racing – Profiting from a late move

August 20, 2019


if you are interested in learning more
about bet angel’ its tools and the opportunities they present then why not
visit bet angel comm today and download a free trial so here’s an interesting
trade that I did this week amongst many but the interesting thing about this
trade is it’s something that I liked it often so I have another chart here one
thing we you know that’s gone out and look at the second and that’s sort of
you know and there doesn’t seem to be any trend there and here you know a
couple of spikes so we’re just trying to get a feel for what we’re seeing in the
market and how the markets developing and we have a look at suffragette City
here and you can see it’s being backed in heavily now it’s you can see my
attention is drawn to suffragette City almost immediately and what I’m looking
at here is I’m gonna intensely watch the activity in the market at this
particular point because typically prices don’t go in one direction only
the tends to move around a bit so you can see here we’ve seen a bit of a
bounce from 5 6 up to 6 so again you know I’m watching and I’m beginning to
think about lining up a trade here and typically when we see activity like this
I’m looking down at the bottom end of this traded range and thinking is this
gonna push lower and based upon what I feel in the market and what I can see in
terms of activity you can see it’s already been down there and touched it
and it bounced so if it comes down here again I’m looking to see if it stops at
that point and if the backing just dries up which appears to be what’s happening
I’m just checking the chart again here say if you look it down here can you see
the prices come in bounced out come in and it’s right at that point again now
something in ok there’s an opportunity for trade here it’s a little bit of
money touched at 5 5 but I never want any lower so I’m looking to establish a
position at or around this point now obviously you need to be confident
that um it’s not going to go get blasted off the charts at the bottom here but um
if you’re looking at all the other runners and taking into account all of
the information then you can make a little bit of money some of this is down
to how long you’ve got left so we’ve got about a minute left here but this has
been backed in heavily there’s some money sat there at five point five this
has been backed heavily for most of the duration of the market
so I’m looking here for people to start taking out their positions and that will
inevitably push the price back up again so if we sit here and be patient we’re
gonna see if it goes below five now and you can see that money’s vanished from
there so we’re keeping a really close eye on this now let me see it touched
five but it never went below five and went into the last minute now I’m having
a look over here it’s the favorite and what’s going on over there
just just centralize the ladder which means I’m usually getting ready to trade and I’m just looking for that little bit
of upward momentum I’m looking for signs that because it’s been banked in heavily
and we’re on to this race late that we’re going to get a little bounce back
just before the start of the race here so you can see much care and attention
I’m paying in terms of getting involved here it’s important to note here that
the race is off late as well so hopefully that will fill in a bit more
of the puzzle for you but I’m just looking for evidence here that it’s not
going to go any lower and then in fact the money is going to start coming for
something else so you can see my confidence here is geared specifically
to the level of activity that we’re seeing on this particular runner I’m
waiting to see what happens when it gets matched at five is it going to push down
towards four or are we going to see no sign of that and the price heading back
in the other direction so you can see I’ve just put my first order in the
market turned in 56 quid a little bit of money back to the game but can you see
that money at five and that knows a little surge back so I’m looking around
here and thinking well okay you know this is probably about the level at
which I would expect it to go up to with the amount of time that we’ve got left
available to us but big slug of money at five it’s never traded below five so I’m
framing it as though that’s my opportunity there that’s the potential
downside that I’m looking at and I just want to catch a little bounce off the
bottom here money’s evaporated at 5.3 we don’t need
much more to get it to our target price there we do need a little bit of a move
here so you can see already I’ve spent most of my time on this video just
trying to carefully assess what’s going on in this market and where the floor is
and as soon as I felt that the floor had been reached that’s when I jumped in so
it’s just a question now waiting and you can see the amount of time on the
concrete just a question of waiting for these positions to get touched there we
go we are now at the point at which I was anticipating we would exit so we
just have to manage this position now you can see in the video it’s unlikely
that it would go back down to five at this particular point not impossible
nothing’s impossible of course you can just see we’re beginning to get matched
here at five five now because we’re past posted a lot of liquidity is dried up so
it’d be very easy for me to dump these positions but I wouldn’t get the best
out of this trade so I’m just sat there and patiently waiting for the orders to
fill sometimes that can be a little annoying but you can see here that the
push is continuing more money’s getting taken at five four
all we need is for it to sit at five five for any length of time and that
money there will start to get taken there’s only one hundred and forty five
lows it can be a bit frustrating but the liquidity tends to rise towards post
time and then it tails off dramatically after post so this isn’t unusual
activity for a market that is going to start a little bit late so frustratingly
we still haven’t been matched and there we go and now we’ve just got to wait and
see if the money gets matched at five six it’s getting a bit painful now so
you can see I’m looking here to split up the order to make sure that and you know
a bit of luck a little bit of luck there but we could tell that the pressure was
heading in that direction and as we’ve got closer to post the impetus for
people to take out positions this thing that had been moving in
fairly consistently for a long period of time was quite high and that’s
effectively what we’re looking for we were looking for people just to take out
that position and you know if they’ve had a decent trade or whatever it was a
good opportunity for them to be able to take that position and reverse it back
into the market and you can see here the charts and basically what we exploited
very slight but it successful trade you

Only registered users can comment.

  1. Good to see a trade where the top few horses are priced around 5. I struggle with these the most. It's always easy looking back at a recording; but seeing the price hang at 5 for some time – simply scalping there was the right thing? Very interesting hearing an experienced pro's thought process. Good stuff.

  2. Hi Peter just to clear for myself ,if you was expecting the market to go down to 5.0 wouldnt it be better if you back at 5.8 and lay at around 5.0 ? If its possible can you give analyze on both situations ? Thanks.

  3. Any reason why you prefer to not have hedging on the ladder and do a market hedge at the end instead? Is this incase you end up trading more than 1 runner and get a better hedge price or what? I've always turned on hedging on the ladder so I can see what I'm getting; maybe that's the wrong approach…

  4. hi peter thanks for your latest pearls. do u think type of race makes any kind of difference to success i.e. quality or number of runners?

  5. PETER EXPLAIN A THING WHAT YOU SAY ABOUT THE PRICE WAS NEVER LESS THAN 5 ABOUT THE (ODD) DOES THIS MEAN THAT THE PRICE WOULD GO UP WHEN IT CAME TO ODD 5 Betfair betting ??

    IF IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEND A MATEIAL PRO MY EMAIL PRA ME ENTER BUT ABOUT THE MOVEMENT OF THE MARKET THE RIGHT MOMENTS OF ENTER. EMAIL: [email protected]

  6. It all seems too easy watching this, but the horse could quite easily have gone below 5. I can get things right most of the time but suddenly the odds will quickly jump to 4 and it'll wipe out my last several winning trades.

  7. That's seems a lot of money matched and unmatched for a 7 runner competitive handicap race at Southwell all weather in winter.

  8. I watch a lot of markets, the majority of the time when a horse hits 5,9 and has not touched that price previously it will usually go down to around the 5.2 mark, I say usually as this doesnt always happen, when it doesnt you will lose more being on the wrong side of a crossover , so this is a good tatic as far as risk is concerned, if the price falls below 4 it hardly ever comes back

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *