Betfair Trading: Horse Racing – Trade analysis
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Betfair Trading: Horse Racing – Trade analysis

August 11, 2019

please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future. So here’s an interesting trait if you have turns to this market
I’ve assessed this market and it looks to me like the second favorite is over
back – what do I mean by that well we can see that there’s been a fair amount
of money coming for it and it’s pulled to the price in a bit hasn’t pulled it
in massively so I don’t think it’s massively over backed but you can see
you know there’s been a few larger orders here so it wouldn’t surprise me
to see this start to head back in the other direction now in order for that to
happen we need to see a little bit of activity on the favorite when you see
the favorite coming in and you can see that that’s more or less what we’ve got
so obviously a key points here will be if the favorite heads lower than 4 and
that would probably trigger off a bit of a drift on the second favour if we look
at the third and fourth you can see that they’re pretty flat so focus is on the
front to thinking that the favourites going to hopefully get backed in looking
to take advantage of that by laying their favorites here so because it’s a
demo video I’m going to use small stakes for you and when I say small smallish
stakes and we’ll see if we can pick up on what’s going to happen within this
particular market so the moment you can see the opposite is happening we can see
that the second favorites continue to get backed in and we can see the
favorites drifting a bit so what we suspected it’s going to happen isn’t
happening the moment so no action on our behalf here we’re not going to change a
minor you think we’ve very specifically looking for a certain set up and I’m
going to trade that set up so let’s see what happens as the money begins to rise
there’s only 86,000 venture so far we’ll see what happens when the real money
comes into the market so I’m going to switch to one hundred twenty eight quid
stakes and you put one order in and I’ve squeezed another income please
match please match please match it’s probably still will match come on yep
and that has matched and the reason I’ve done that is because we are seeing a bit
of a reaction now and the price on this is beginning to drift so really to make
the trade really work well we need to see the favorite getting banked in so
let’s keep an eye on what’s going on over here we can see the favorites being
backed in there’s quite a lot of money at for two for one so we need to see
that getting eaten through and the perfect scenario for us would be to see
the price push below four and then that will really set off a big move so on
this side what I’m going to do is I’m going to put in a little bit of a
closing order at five five that’s going to give me a little bit of breathing
space on this trade I want to see this money getting taken down here at four to
four one you can see there’s lots of money stacked up on both sides here so
let’s see if that continues that push down and I’m beginning to think now
about other points at which I would like to get out so let’s pop a trade in here
should I pop one in there yeah and and I think you know where’s the upper extent
of where this move is likely to go so you know perhaps up here but more likely
somewhere around here so if we take up these orders if the price breaks here it
could break here and get some of these matched if we really think it’s going to
go a long way you can see our potential profit now is down at four to where we
trip over and start making loss we’ve got plenty of room to play with here got
loads of room to play with yeah but what I’m watching here is whether this is
going to break down if it doesn’t break down then I’ll start exiting my order a
little bit closer to where the money is within the market so it’s struggling
yeah I mean if you look at the chart you’ll see it’s struggling to get
further down its stubbornly refusing to go further the thing that would set that
offers if we get a bit of a drift and one of these other two but I’m not not
seeing that I’m not seeing that at all so price has gone out coming back in a
bit didn’t break six – so let’s put our
order down closer to that particular point within
the market and you can see it still isn’t going further than that there’s
been money traded at six to six for let’s see if we get matched now momentary concentration keeping an eye
on the favorite the favorites is coming in ever so slightly which didn’t go to
so that’s the signal to me that it’s probably not willing to go much higher
than that there’s only 40 odd seconds left so I can you see how stubbornly
it’s sticking to that particular price but we’ve got the majority of our trade
out now so we’re pretty safe and that goes the favorite go on go on go go go
go go go bit of backing on the fourth no it didn’t last long it didn’t really
punch through there so I’m now focusing it would help if I was on the right side
I’m now focusing on one this race is going to go off see if we get that last
or time matched and it looks like we are going to get it matched we’ve got a
little bit of it matched we just need that a little bit left the three horses
out so it’s just going to happen there goes the break finally on the favorite and it’s not really gonna go any further
on here so if I put the closing trade in somebody sorry I said just no to
somebody off one of the runners we’re in a tidying up exercise now we’re not
going to make much more money with the mistake that we’ve got left so there’s
no needs to be too critical about where we’re going to get out but you can see
that we’ve now filled or passed post time the markets beginning to slow up in
terms of volume but we more or less called out right some time out in terms
of what we expected to happen so if we have a look around here you know there’s
fairly plain and simple trade we could see that the second favorite really
wasn’t going to go much higher than that but we saw that when the price came in
down to around these levels these were attractive to us and it’s very common
that as the price comes in as long as you don’t see any particular reason for
it to be that short the price will meander back and progressed to a more
sensible level and we spotted that fairly early on so yeah half decent
trade so yeah we’re out of our trade now and
you can see it was a gross profit of 254 and when we fully hedged that there’d be
around 43 pound you

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  1. Great video! How did you know from your assessment that the second favourite had been over-backed? Wasn't it equally probable that it's price would continue to come in?

  2. Just a suggestion: It would be useful to have your Cursor Arrow highlighted with a yellow’s difficult at times to follow your cursor, especially on a iPhone (the same for most of your vids)

    Good work non-the-less

  3. how do you differentiate that horse coming in and being 'over backed', from a horse that becomes a big gamble and just keeps on coming in? As they frequently seem to…

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