Betfair trading – How to read and trade a horse racing market – Peter Webb
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Betfair trading – How to read and trade a horse racing market – Peter Webb

August 20, 2019


okay so we’ve got a reasonable set up
here it’s been a bit muddled up because one of the horses was withdrawn recently
so the markets splattered all over the place and difficult to read anything
into the graphs a moment so we’re gonna have to sit and wait for the activity
you can see gaps in the matched bet volume and this is where the rule for
kicked in so money’s been matched at odd prices which so it doesn’t make any
sense but that’s just a function of this withdrawal it’s a bit of a pain because
they’ve had to reprice the market and the level at which orders were placed so
difficult I can see a bit of backing activity going on here and see the
backing activity coming to the market bit more backing activity somebody’s
thrown some money back in on the other side money at 183 is what we’re
interested in I was one of the first orders that we saw hit the market and
push the price down that looks like that’s about to go that’s been beaten in
again long-term trend on this is bloody erratic so I could say about that
difficult difficult on you know near the bottom end of the current trading range
don’t take me alive is drifting maybe we’ll keep an eye on that one quite big
prices I’m expecting a bounce-back at some
point there’s not enough true liquidity in the market to really get a feel for
where current price activity is I think we’re in the process of a bounce-back
here I mean it’s traded a low of 175 ish so
and if it breaches that the price will continue to come in if it doesn’t then
it should start to bounce back I think we’re beginning to see the start of a
bounce back not much money supporting the bounce back there
let’s pop an order in that’s been taken getting ready to dump it really relies
upon 178 filling and the price moving beyond that there you go it’s been
beaten back in again so the what I’m reading in the moment is the there’s not
a great deal of pressure the price to go out you know somebody keeps wanting to
back this at this particular moment in time as soon as he says that the price
starts to go out but you know that’s okay we’ll see if the price gets backed
again it’s very thin though you see and this is the problem that the leat the
smaller amounts of money you get on either side make it harder to read
money’s coming in 118 there’s one that’s 176 here’s well I money’s been taken
from 180 difficult to see any evidence of anything happening I just want to it
breeches 175 I’m tempted to back up so little money above and below
this is what makes it hard when there’s not big chunks of money okay so now now
it’s been pushed a bit higher high tide is coming in see if that money
gets taken it it seems a pivotal point 180 181 not much above it it’s very thin it’s no there’s no real
oomph in this market at this stage so really my opinions beginning to form
between 175 and 180 if it breaches in either direction I’m going to jump on
the back of that trend backed in again but it needs to push lower than this to
get a run going it hasn’t so while it’s stuck in this narrow range it’s not of
great interest to me with very easy to get this wrong on either side so I need
it to go above this so let’s go the current pattern is going up to 180
getting back to going up going down going up going down I’m going to get
dizzy in a minute I go back to in again what I’m going to do actually pop an
order in at 180 see if we get filled on that give us a chance to trade out if it
reaches that level again and if it doesn’t then I’m going to dump it
superfast at 180 one money’s coming in 176 to support the lower end of the
range and 78 is of interest to me if that if
that sweeps through that quickly you’ll see some support coming in here at the
bottom so I gets pulled though the price will move so it’d be interesting to see
if we comes up and touches 180 again slight drift on Kings destiny it’s quite
interesting money at 179 or in a good position at 180 now loads of support
down at this level so I think in fact see what happens at 178 I think in fact
we could be headed past this a little bit late come matched go on push push
push push push we need 180 to go and see only way come
on 180 come on no my original position was
correct oh no ask on just when all hope was lost
let’s sir let’s get this move confirmed then this event will start in five
minutes five I need something to come in though to
really push this higher otherwise I’m in danger ever coming back in the other
direction come on not much support I need some support at 181 support at 180
now but it’s just not happening just not happening you need 181 to thin out money
to come in on the other side there we go okay nice little bit of activity there
need to push pass 195 I’m going to take out a little bit of this position
because I fell I’m overweight for such a volatile market
we need 185 to go thank you 187 were looking at now got a little bit of room
go about six tic range below us that’s that’s okay 187
please I’m willing to sit this out now don’t take me alive is coming in
everything else is drifting ed nut and everything else can’t drift at the same
time so I’m not particular confident this has got much in the way legs so I’m
going to just play a little bit safer why don’t you four is that 184 going to
go 187 is still a key point probably a little underway now it depends where the
187 if 187 goes then I’ll drop some money in there if not I can afford to
hold it down to the lowest point of which it’s traded there we go don’t in your life is going in a little
bit it’s pretty volatile for this type of
market in terms of a low volatility the high volatility low range sort of way if
you understand where I’m coming from okay a little bit of a movement coming
up here yeah probably underweight now it’s my
fault really just because I wasn’t reading it very well because I’m not
getting the right sort of feeling from this because I I I’m not full-blooded on
this I think I’m just going to take what I’ve got it may push higher I’d love it
to push higher but getting to point where I’m beginning to think about
exiting so I’m not going to gamble on it going higher I think this is false at
190 we’ll see in a second i legs in my trade so i can be square and we’ll see
if that 190 goes looks false to me if I had more time I might sit around and
wait for it to go there it goes yep so they get push up is going to continue
now no no more money came back in at 119 and it won again bit chaotic and now
it’s coming at 189 so somebody’s trying to get this down so I’m just trying to
push the price down ya know I think we’re probably about right to exit if you’re interested in learning more
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  1. That video alone is more valuable than all of the videos combined of some of the so called "Betfair traders" selling their guides and video guides to people believing their BS. People keep looking at the wrong things and keep on losing money, while the charlatans get wealthy in the process… Well done Peter, and thank you for being one of the few genuine guys in the industry!

  2. Just out of interest… Are the backs on the right and the lays on the left on the ladder in this video… which is different to the settings in bet angel ? is this just a preference ? I was abit confused following this based on that … otherwise awesome video

  3. wow. At no point during that whole video did you actually do what your title suggested you would do. waste off time!!

  4. how much would you need to start practicing trading ? I have about 1k between to play with betfair and smarkets and would like to get into this side of trading at some stage in the near future

  5. Quite a few missed scalping opportunities in the first 5 mins of the video there, the favourite could have been taken 3 or 4 times at around 1.78 for 2 ticks easily.

  6. why would anyone dislike Peters video!? it's his opinion and though process, if you disagree and have your own opinions why are you watching it? it's free advice ffs. Instead of disliking, give your opinion via comments. This pisses me off can't imagine how Peter feels. idiots!

  7. BETAngel, Hi Peter, so while you are trading you are not interested in the form of the horses or about information or do the handicap yourself on the race the night prior and form your own market like an odds compiler, this seems totally different from what i do , do you do Arbitrage, i Bet horses on bookies early markets at early prices and i usually make a profit on every horse i bet before the race is off this is because i have inside information on hundreds of horses , if i wanted to do this type of trading would my knowledge be a waste of time and i would need to re-train to use these programs, because i have no idea what you are doing, but i am an expert horses racing Handicapper , I have a popular face book page and website but i give tips and Compile odds, just tell me this is totally different to what i do do you use pre knowledge of Horses before you trade?. many thanks Peter.

  8. Peter

    Can I ask why you didn't trade from when it hit the bottom of the market (1.74) with a lay as your thought pattern suggested it was going up to 1.8. So traded in reverse, lay to back when you felt it hit the top? Can you explain that thought pattern?

  9. Hi Peter, Love your videos, but I'm always asking "why?" to my screen when you say things like "as you can see this price is about to move" etc.! It's very frustrating knowing what you're thinking without knowing why you're thinking it! Anyway – I have a specific question about the trades in this video: Could you explain in a little more detail why you felt this price was likely to break above 1.82 or below 1.75 and make a run?? You say you're expecting a bounce back at 1min 40secs but I'm at a loss to work out why you think this is likely? Thanks!!

  10. Thank you peter, this video is golden! i watched it 6 weeks ago and wasn't able to take much away, i've since tried to trade using small stakes and watching this today I've got a lot more of the nuggets of info your putting out. Great job mate! Your helping a lot of people!

  11. I wish I understood what he is doing and saying. I understand that the basic premise of trading is backing at higher odds than the lay bet to guarantee a profit by creating an arb but I am confused by the columns here. For example stopping the video at 5.11, it looks to me like you could put on a back stake on cut the cards of £990 at odds of 1.87 and lay the same horse at 1.7 up to £1071 but this surely can't be right. Can somebody please explain?

  12. You comment a lot in your horse trading videos about volume/order flow but your automation in BetAngel doesn't allow volume tracking.Is there a reason why?

  13. Hi Peter, any reason why you didn't line up some offers once it had its run up towards 1.9, looking for a spike up?

  14. Peter around 8:55 you speak of that money on the back side being 'false', it's like £3,300 or something, but then when it did go it was matched, by false I thought you mean it's like spoof money that will disappear without being matched as it's not genuine money? But the money did seem to be genuine as it was matched. Am I missing the point about what you mean by 'false' here?

  15. Peter can you explain in a video what graphs you use, the layout you choose for the graphs on bet angel and what each graph means. And how do you see those little line depictions of the price history for each horse? I go into market overview on my bet angel but it doesn't display like that, it uses coloured coded lines all parallel to each other then a colour code.

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