Betfair trading notes – Horse racing markets
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Betfair trading notes – Horse racing markets

August 12, 2019

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when I was trading this week I thought I’d make some notes because I wanted to
come up with a little checklist of things that I thought may be interesting
for you and I thought you know as I trade I’m gonna just make some little
notes and write them down and I thought I’d share those with you it’s funny I
should have written in in you know 360 degrees so I’m gonna have to reinterpret
these but let’s go through some of these notes first one was courses tend to
behave different on each day so what I meant by this was that when you trade
one particular meeting at one particular course what I tend to go through the
cycle of the whole first set of meetings that could be for four different
meetings or three different meetings and I get a big you begin to get a feeling
about which ones are trading better than others and then when I come around on
the second cycle I can confirm that that’s the case as in orders filled
quickly markets are erratic you know big price moves all over the
place and then by the third cycle I’ve pretty much got a firm idea of which
course I’m gonna trade aggressively and which one I’m going to tone it down on
and by aggressively and tone it down what I mean is if it’s if a course is
trading well and I tend to be able to read it well and yeah my oldest feel
quickly and so on then I’ll start to wrap my stakes up on that particular
course but if it’s not trading particularly well and I can’t read the
market very well then the stakes go right down that’s part of my process of
managing how those markets behave and how I respond to it I can’t read that
well understand saying oh here we go in weak markets momentum is king so this is
basically saying when there’s a strong move in a weak market tends to continue
and part of the reason for this is that when something gets back to heavily in a
weak market in other words in a poor-quality race then the market tends
to follow that up the form lines probably are particularly strong on
those horses and as I consequence when money starts to come
from it people see the money coming from it start to put more money on it which
forces the price even more people see that and then copy it and lower in
either direction it could be a drift or a sting so yeah in weak markets momentum
is king is another notes that I wrote if you choose one side you’ll get it right
more often or you will get it more often right or something like that it
basically when you go into a market go into a market with a plan so you sort of
say well I’m gonna lay and if you do that consistently you know over the
course of maybe twelve races or something you’re looking for lay
opportunities you’re looking for drift ins then you tend to make much better
decisions and let’s say that you’re doing it completely random in twelve
markets you’re going to get six of those right and six of them wrong but of
course your skill as a trader will ensure that you look that balance will
be tipped to maybe seven or eight out of twelve but the consequence is that you
you narrow your decision-making to one particular style and that’s what you’re
looking for and you will find it much quicker if you go into the muck and goo
or or what’s this market trying to do I think it’s gonna drift steam driven
steam ding drifted steam it’s really hard to make that decision and the
market starts to bully you it starts to push you around all over the place so
it’s better that you’re going to say I’m going to look for something as steaming
and I’m gonna back it and then you stick consistently to that and all you do is
you vary which one you’re looking at and which market you may not see one at all
in the market in which case you do nothing but yeah if you adopt a certain
style something that you’re looking for and you look for it you will find it and
also it makes your results more consistent but if you keep chopping and
changing your mind you’ll get beaten up by the market and by your own mind so
it’s better that you go in with a plan and something that you’re looking for
and then you add ear and stick to it now I have a range of setups depending upon
what I see in the market and how the market is structured but that’s an
advanced skill and beyond the scope of this video so my tip for you if you’re
doing something is trying to stick to one particular tactic and do it very
well easier to read a market with a long running so basically if there if you
don’t have much time between markets that
comes a little bit more stressful and difficult to read but if you’ve got a
long time between markets so for example we had two today and there were
15-minute gaps between the two of them that was quite easy to see what was
going on you could judge the flow of the market much easier I can’t read that one
what does that say if a head sounds too late my writing is terrible
oh yeah if a trend has started I can’t believe I couldn’t read that if a trend
is started it’s probably too late to jump on it probably not saying that for
definite but typically what happens is as a move develops and the price gets
backed in and bhakti an impact in about ten years think you know I’m going to
back this I’m gonna back this I’m gonna back this I’m gonna make this yeah I’m
gonna back it yeah I’m gonna back it right now and then it starts to turn
because it’s impossible for the price to head in one direction permanently all
the time so what if we’re trying to start it and it it may already be too
late by the time you spotted and I’ve also point here prices interact ahead of
anything else so this is basically saying if the price on something is
going up and the price and something somewhere else must be going down let’s
become more dominant over recent years but that’s something that I’ve made a
note on as well is that prices interact quicker than any other indicator you can
imagine so if you’ve got a position that’s wrong that’s trying to go out and
something’s going out somewhere else then that’s gonna stop that fairly
quickly so that was another common update there are a couple of others on
here but I think they’re – they’re too
complicated to explain in one little video they require different videos
altogether but there were just some notes that I made this week that I
thought may be helpful to people who are trading out for the first time or look a
few tips or tricks or hints so I hope that’s been useful for you if you’re
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Only registered users can comment.

  1. Hi peter. Thanks for all your help and advice. I'd love to see some live examples of some of those pieces of advice.

  2. The comment about sticking to a tactic, i.e. stick to backing or laying, in each market is so true. You're cutting down the amount of information you need to analyse and it makes trading a lot less stressful especially when markets are close together. Less stress = clearer decision making.

  3. Thanks Peter! Great video, very helpful. Keep it up! The only trustworthy betfair horse trading channel, the rest are just clowns in my opinion, trying to take advantage of naive subscribers, by offering dodgy courses and services

  4. Pearls of wisdom Peter…thanks so much..xcellent advice..particularly about having a plan to either back or lay. I shall watch it x5 until i have them all on board!

  5. Interesting that momentum is king in weak markets. It seems as if the same is true in extremely strong markets (Cheltenham). Would you agree?

  6. I never know how to tell if the price is reaching its end of a trend.
    I am feeling so frustrated with trading as I am constantly losing.

  7. A touch of contradiction in the momentum is king and will continue, but then you say if a trend has already formed you've probably missed the opportunity

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