Betfair trading – When is the best time to trade on Horse Racing?
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Betfair trading – When is the best time to trade on Horse Racing?

August 14, 2019


if you’re interested in learning to
trade on Betfair then visit the better angel Academy where you have detailed
structured Betfair trading courses or why not visit our website where you can
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where you can get detailed images examples and downloadable files and
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if you want notification of new videos as they’re released so when you’re
actively trading you need to be in the markets at approximately the right time
and the most important thing when you’re actively trading is actually not getting
in to the to the right position I know this sounds funny but I would be an
advocate for not worrying about your entry position now obviously you need to
you need to do a valid a sensible entry position to the into the market but you
are sort of more focused really on being able to get out one of the issues that
you’re going to have is that if you can’t get out of a position sensibly
then you’re going to be in real desperate trouble and therefore you need
to be in the market when the market is most liquid so on horse-racing you know
we’re an hour 30 away from the start of this particular race I expect most of
the money to arrive in this race in the last five minutes so we’re going to have
a net the best part of an hour thirty of staring at increasing volume but not
massive amounts of volume basically and therefore timing your entry in and out
of the market is absolutely critical and there’s an easy way of understanding and
why this is the case so in this particular market if I look at this
market I would estimate that there’s probably going to be about half a
million to 600,000 somewhere in that region of money matched so you can see
there’s only 25,000 matched volume tends to arrive very late on a race because
you know horses are not machines and therefore people wants to have a look at
the horse before they place a bet so most of the money arrives late on but
that has a direct impact on how you would like most likely trade a market so
say we think we’ve got an opportunity here and this runner fits a lot of
criteria for something that we think is going to steam is going to get
backed in the price is going to come down the ladder one of the issues that
we’ve got here is there is just no money in the market or an hour thirty out we
know there’s gonna be at least half a million in this market so there’s four
hundred and seventy five thousand pound missing so if we try and back with a
hundred pounds to do our trade can you see there isn’t a hundred pound
available we’ve got thirty forty fifty sixty seventy and then we have to back
it at 288 so basically if you try and get a decent trade on here oh and I
wouldn’t say a hundred pound is decent for me at all then you’re gonna have to
take a wide range of prices you take a lower price and therefore you’re less
likely to profit but also okay imagine there was several hundred pound here
that we could take let’s say that we got this horrific allah wrong and something
started to change within the market maybe they unloaded this horse from its
from its box and they went to take it to the stables but there was a problem
and suddenly word gets out that there’s an issue with the horse and then the
price starts to drift because people on course are beginning to lay at knowing
that there’s an issue you’ve put your hundred pound in here at three but look
how little it would take to move the price up if i wanted to move the price
in this market by 10 ticks i wouldn’t need much money at all let’s count out
one two three four five six seven eight nine ten
okay so let’s move it by nine ticks then so we avoid that 255 but you can see
here there’s seventeen hundred and ten 130 forty hundred fifty two hundred for
less than three hundred pound i could basically move the price of this from
three to close on three and a half so if i wanted to shake this market up a bit i
could just drop in 300 pounders 345 tulay and the price would go rocketing
out now the problem that you face is that that’s the scenario you could face
there so we backed with a hundred pound at three there’s almost nothing stopping
it from moving upwards so the issue that you have is not getting into the market
because you can back it a variety different prices it’s getting out and
this is why when you trade a market you need it to be liquid by liquid I mean
have lots of money on both sides of the book by both sides of the book we mean
loads of money here and loads of money there you can see
that this market is what we return illiquid that is absolutely nothing here
whatsoever so you cannot trade it doesn’t matter how strong your criteria
is whatever you come up with some theory or something that somebody has told you
you basically are taking too much risk whatever amount of money you put on this
side if it goes wrong you won’t be able to get out and in the process of getting
out you’re going to be pushing the price higher and higher further and further
way making it bigger and bigger loss so the problem that you have if you try and
do a trade in the morning with the anticipation of getting out later on is
there is just no money in the market there is absolutely none so you know at
the moment we are at 5% of the total amount of volume that we expect in this
market and the markets really thin very illiquid no money on either side of it
and if we get ourselves into a bit of a pickle we will be unable to get out at a
reasonable price so you should time your entry to the market when there is large
amounts of money in the market and when both sides of the book on whichever run
you’re looking to trade is is flush with money because that means that if you
make a mistake you can get rid of the trade really quickly without stew much
of a loss but if you try and get involved in the market in the morning to
try and do a longer-term trade you’re going to put yourself up against
enormous amounts of risk and if somebody wanted to deliberately shake out people
who had got in on a trade at a lower level they would they could do it with
just a couple hundred pound they could move the price fairly significantly
fairly easily so yeah I’m not an advocate of doing trades early in the
morning if you look at the average price movement so we’re looking at this novice
hurdle it’s probably not the best example but the average price movement
on a race from this time in the morning to the start of the race is actually
zero believe it or not so the the price movement the attenti get between any two
points on a race is more or less sort of exactly where it started and so you’re
more worried about the risk that you take with the price moving away from
your opening position in one direction or the other it’s the ability to get out
that very often defines a profitable trade or not making a loss then
necessarily picking a fantastic entry point and while it’s important to get
it’s an entry point it’s more important that you can get out of your trade
quickly and easy and that’s why I don’t tend to be an advocate for putting a
trade in early in the morning simply because there’s not enough money and
most certainly if the trade goes wrong that balance and careful balance between
profits and losses that you’re going to try and achieve when you’re trading will
get unbalanced simply because if your attempts to get out you’re going to have
to move the price and if the price does move and will move quickly violently
against you so yeah much better to be in the market
when it’s very liquid and you have the opportunity to exit for the smallest
lost possible you

Only registered users can comment.

  1. It's interesting to see how far the price moves from when the markets open. At first glance it looks like a big swing with an opportunity but like you explained the historical graphs aren't proportionate and the liquidity is so low at the beginning that it's not a safe trade

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