Betting and trading – Understanding draw bias in horse racing
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Betting and trading – Understanding draw bias in horse racing

August 31, 2019

please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future so I want to talk about draw bias now people who are interesting
will know what draw bias is immediately but there are a lot of people who aren’t
into racing so I have no idea what it is or how it could be used and the other
videos are produced on betangel which includes elements of automation takes
advantage of draw bias so it’s important that I actually do talk about draw bias
in its own right now when you’re racing over time during the flat season horses
are loaded into stalls now over much much longer races during the jump season
they just take horses to the start they mill around at the start get into some
sort of order and away they go but during the flat season where you have
shorter races where timing is much more critical then they load the horses into
stalls and of course you can’t put all of the horses you know behind each other
because then one the front would get a unfair so whatever so they’re obviously
aligned but on one side you have rails on the other side you have rails and
then the stores will sit on one side of that depending upon the way that the
course goes round and as a consequence a horse that’s near the rail will tend to
do a little bit better not only does it have a line which to follow to the
finish line but also it can actually run slightly less distance and some of the
other horses as well so to understand how the draw bias works and how the
stalls will affect the draw bias what you need to do is to actually look at
individual courses so there are some courses where there’s virtually no draw
bias and there’s some courses where there’s a very high draw bias and the
easiest way to understand that is to actually go onto Google Maps and have a
look at the courses so we have a skits coming up and if you look at the flat
course a-tasket it’s basically just one long line basically when you look at
races over five furlongs to a mile they will just basically belt down that
course and it just is one big long straight line and in fact when oscar was
redesigned is relatively flat and drains well
anyhow so the going is pretty consistent across the entire flat racing track so
there really isn’t a significant draw bias at Ascot however obviously for
horses drawn on the outside of the stores if it’s you know in the middle of
the course when there’s one guy on the inside of the course near the rails then
if you want to grab the rails or the better going there are obviously you
know I’m generalizing here there are loads of little facets within racing
that will impact the way that a horse runs and any biases there we’re talking
simplistically here but if a horse is on the outside rail is very an outside rail
in the outside of the stalls and it wants to get to the near side rail then
what it’s going to have to do is it’s going to have to cross across and you
know by then if they all jump off at the same time and then he’s going to lose a
bit of ground trying to get towards the rails then it may be congested and there
may be 20 other runners there or and the ground may be slightly different or
whatever there are many different variables but generally if you’ve got a
course that’s completely flat like a skirt the bias is less pronounced
however let’s look at a course where the bias is really well understood and that
is Chester if you get a low draw at Chester and you’re going to be running
around the circuit and if you look at the circuit on Google Maps which I will
bring up in front of me now can you see that it’s almost circular so
if you imagine that this is a bit like when you look at atletic s–
they actually stagger the start on Athletics courses so that there’s no
disadvantage to one runner or another that doesn’t happen with a set of stores
they don’t stagger the stalls to balance out the inefficiency of running on the
inside of the track but is running on the outside so at Chester you can see
that the draw bias on somebody in a high stool is significant whereas somebody
drawn on the low end of that is obviously going to benefit from a
grabbing the rails and be they’re going to have to run much less distance as
well so when you look at individual courses each of them have their own
specific draw bias some are very very strong and some aren’t so strong because
of the design of the courses so it’s important to understand that each course
does have how could you use this in the automation
video that we produce that goes alongside this video I’m just hearing
myself tell me that five minutes to the next race I’ll bet get a move on yep if
you would look at the automation within bet angel’ you do actually have within
there the stall draw and the reason we put the
stall draw in there is so that you can actually take advantage of that so watch
the video that goes in partnership of this and you’ll see that in fact if you
apply the automation to courses that have a very strong draw bias then it’s
likely that you could actually be able to come up and stretch it or benefit
from that of course there are other factors as well but you know something
to have a play with if you want to know more about which courses have the
strongest draw bias and so on and so forth I’m not going to talk you through
that because there are loads of sites out that will do it and one of them is
called rather surprisingly draw bias calm so yeah I’ll bring up to the image
of it head over here but basically visit that website and it talks through all of
the individual courses all of the individual races and the different
lengths because obviously different lengths may be at different points on
the course some of them may be straighter or involve less curves than
other parts of the course as well so it’s worth checking out and worth having
a play with but you’ll generally find it coming up in your results anyway if you
do anything that is related to the stall draw what you will find is that certain
courses produce different results to other courses and that may and that will
manifest itself in a number of ways the winners that are likely at those courses
the percentage upset that you can do when you’re looking to dog or things
like that it all vary according to individual courses and as they say and
it applies to trading strategies as well in our horses for courses if you know
that horse runs over a certain distance and likes a certain course for a certain
reason you’ll find different statistics coming out of all of these variations
there’s no standard default type of course when you look at the courses in
the UK they’re wildly different so they do produce different results in favour
some horses more than others and certain distances and several biases and so on
and so forth so it’s always worth investigating various strategy according
to those metrics anyhow that’s what a draw bias is and that gives you a clue
as how to use it within any specific trading strategy you

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  1. Hi Peter, on Chester, it appears that over the course as a whole the stall bias is not as pronounced in the past 3 years as it had been before

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