Betting on horse racing – Working out place odds from win odds
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Betting on horse racing – Working out place odds from win odds

August 24, 2019


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betangel visit betangel calm today and download a free trial so I’ve had some
requests recently with saying is it possible to get better angel to
calculate place odds from the wind market on horse race and yes it is and
you could do this even if it’s not a horse race if it’s some other market you
just need to use a little bit of maths and logic to be able to work it out and
this was something actually did back in 2005 so one of the first areas i
explored on betfair was i spent a lot of time trying to work out how markets were
related and priced and when i came across horse racing you had the wind
market the outright market which is you’re betting on something to win and
then you have the place market where you’re betting on it’s finished 1st 2nd
or 1st and 2nd and 3rd or 1st forth and so on and so forth and I mean you can
plug this into Bettinger if you want and we could probably put this in the
product if you want as well because we’ve got all the maths behind it but I
thought I would just share with you the calculation because it’s actually quite
simple if you want to replicate it yourself or you want to be able to do
this so let me explain lots of numbers and formulas on here don’t panic because
once I talk you through the explanation you’ll actually begin to understand how
it’s done and it’s quite simple so at the top here we have the horses this is
a five run a race but rather than putting run and one two three four five
I’ve used letters because it’s easy to describe in the bottom half here so
we’ve got runner ABCDE five run a race and there are two places that we’re
going to pay out for in this particular race so all I’ve done here is we’ve got
the odds that are available within the race then I’ve converted them to a
probability by doing one divided by the odds so you can see here the second
runner is priced odds of 10 so if we do 1/10 equals ten percent therefore the
market is telling us that we actually have a temp cent chance of this horse
winning the race so how do you know whether it’s going to finish first or
second let’s have a look at that first thing we know is that horse a
win’s eighty percent of the time but the market is saying that it should win
eighty percent of the time so there you go eighty percent goes in here pretty
obvious then we have to work out the chance that be beats everybody else
within the race so what were we do is we add up all those probabilities in that
part of the race and then we say well okay it’s got to beat all of these guys
so if you do that / all of that then you get the chance of be beating one other
so you can see that described down here and you can see the formula in here well
basically saying chance of all that divided by the Chancellor so if we look
at the first scenario that horse be finishes second then you can see here
that the chance of horse a winning and be beating all others is the combination
of the two so if we multiply those by each other the chance of horse a winning
and horse be finishing second is forty percent hopefully you’ve understood that
you can see that from the calculations that we’ve done here and that I’m
showing you then we need to go in and see what chance we’ve got FC wins and B
beats all others d wins and beats all others or be a second and so on and so
forth so you basically work your way through each one of these scenarios
you’re interested in what’s the chance of one thing happening and a combination
of this happening and that happening and you can see all of the calculations that
we’ve got going down here and then when you’ve worked out the chance of one
particular horse winning the race and becoming second that allows you to add
up all of the calculations are done so far so we now have course a win’s and be
a second horse see winds and beer is second or Steve Wynn’s and be a second
horse wins and be saying that about that at all of those up and then you actually
get all of the calculations together you can see that delivers is a value at the
bottom here so that gives us the ability to understand the chance of be finishing
in second place but that doesn’t give us our total place probability that
actually gives us just part of the equation so in fact what we need to add
to that as well as the fact that be wins and we already have that we can see here
there’s a ten percent chance of that winning so if you add the two together
then you end up with your odds so you can see here there’s a 51-percent chance
according to the maths here and according to the way that we’ve
constructed this that horse B will finish second and if we want to convert
that back into decimal odds we do 1 / that we would expect this to be in the
place market at or around 190 6 ish somewhere around there but the
interesting thing is that this doesn’t really work what you actually find is
that you’ve actually got a range of different prices that occur at or around
the place odds and this is because there are a number of factors that you can’t
quantify within pure maths itself so you actually end up with the situation where
um you know the horse could finish second in a fair race but it may have a
bad store or it may get off to a difficult start it could fall the jockey
could jump off of it there are so many other variables in there so inevitably
you find even though you can mathematically calculate what the
correct odds should be they never match the place odds this is one of the first
things that I discovered and I was thinking well hold on a second how can
that be and it’s only over time when I began to understand horse racing that
you begin to see all of the detail behind it so the problem that you have
is it’s not possible to directly calculate place odds from a wind market
there will always be a variation to what you actually see in the betfair market
and the betfair market is fantastically efficient it was amazing to watch how
efficient the place odds were on betfair and it’s obviously all of the knowledge
people understanding how the horse is going to run with us going to front-run
be held up what stalled rods in how the course runs how that influences things
into the market and obviously that’s a case of supply and demand some people
will look at it and think well this is ridiculous that this is priced at this
particular set of odds and so on and so forth and back or they will layer
because they think it’s wrong in the other direction but if you’re interested
in the pure calculation although it’s how to calculate place from win odds
then this is the way to do it and the process is quite simple it can be
applied to a number of different things now of course if you wanted to work out
the chance of horse be as horse see finishing second you would have to go
through the whole calculation and process again for that particular runner
but that is how you calculate place from where knots if you’re interested in
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