Equine flu hits horse racing uk industry in early 2019
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Equine flu hits horse racing uk industry in early 2019

August 12, 2019

As you probably heard in the news this
week there’s been an issue in the UK racing industry with equine flu how will
it impact you how they impact the markets is chant them under threat has
it happened before it’s answer a few of those questions in this video if you’re
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as they’re released so ya shouldn’t have escaped your attention this week that we
have a problem with UK racing it’s all been canceled
and at first glance this seems a bit of a blow but my first point that I’ll make
to you is that actually it’s quite a quiet time of the year if you’ve seen my
video on racing seasonality I explained in there where the peaks and troughs are
so at the moment we are in a bit of a trough in terms of racing so actually
it’s occured if there is ever a good time for this it’s actually occurred at
quite a nice time I’ll put that video on the end of this one so that you can
watch it if you want to debrief yourself on seasonality and racing but if you
look at the schedule over the course of the year this is a quiet period for me
on the racing I will be active on the racing I will do a number of things but
I’m not expecting to get anything amazing and you’ll see this replicated
on a number of other videos where I talk about this time of the year so my
expectations aren’t up here they’re down here and as a consequence it will be
lower impact for us at this particular moment in time which is quite helpful
because we don’t know at this stage how long they’re going to stop the racing in
the UK and if we look at the way that it’s going it basically as soon as they
identified that there was a problem they just stopped the racing the idea is stop
the animals from mixing up and spreading the disease right across the entire
horse population now this hasn’t happened to my knowledge in racing that
much in the UK certainly not within my bet fair trade
career / but it did happen in Australia in 2007 and I remember that because I
started trading Australian racing in 2006 so I do remember it from 2007 and
it knocked out racing for six months in Australia now that sounds pretty bad and
in fact the daily starve that veritable fountain of information put that as
their headline UK racing to be shut down for six months but that’s rubbish that
is not going to happen or I’d be incredibly surprised if it did happen
because the horse thoroughbred horses in Australia weren’t vaccinated so when the
disease ran riot through Australia they couldn’t control it and it just spread
like wildfire in the UK thoroughbred horses are vaccinated the problem that
we have with this outbreak which is why they’ve acted quickly is in theory you
shouldn’t get an outbreak if the horses are vaccinated but this could be a new
strain it could have mutated somewhat and therefore you know they have to
assess quickly exactly what the extent of it what strain it is and all of those
sort of details so the best way to stop it from spreading is to just stop racing
and stop the movement of horses around the country because that will allow them
to contain the spread of the disease and then as they get all of the swabs and
the samples back from all of the different yards they’ll begin to form a
better picture of who is and isn’t affected and basically what they can do
about it because if the outbreak is relatively small and contained they can
just say right you’re not running any of those horses but we’ll run a few other
horses and we’ll keep testing and making sure that nothing weird is going on so
yeah we have to wait unfortunately this you know they’re going to stop racing
until next Wednesday I’d be surprised if it stays until next Wednesday I can see
they’re racing for the whole of next week of being wiped out and perhaps a
little bit longer while they decide what to do and and how to start things up
again so yeah I think we could be in for a reasonable period of no racing at all
in the UK now the thing is there is going to be racing in Ireland they’ll be
on a Thursday that we’re racing in May Dan and the in Dubai and you’ve also got
a racing in Australia as well so if you want
to participate in a bit of racing some of those are avenues that you may want
to pursue in fact the racing in Australia begins to pick up again at
exactly this time of the year so we end up going into a lot of group racing as
we head into February so that can be pretty useful to have a look at but also
you need to be pretty committed and if you’re not established in the UK and
you’re not trading particular profitable in the UK and don’t bother getting up in
the middle a night to try it in Australia because it’s not kind of work
and also the liquidity is much lower over there as well so it’s a different
type of market but there are opportunities if you want to do that
now you could also trade football greyhounds tennis there was no WTA
tennis this week though and a variety of other sports so it can be an opportunity
for you to actually get out there and try a couple of different sports so you
know typically what I’ll do at this time of year there’s a number of things that
I do and especially if there’s like new tee weather is impacted Racing is
impacted by the weather at this time of the year so actually I’m quite used to
disruption through January to February and sometimes into early March so it’s
not you know that severe for me as it were if this whole thing happens say at
the Ginny’s and then it affected Royal Ascot then that’s a major major major
major problem however it’s occurred at a sort of a dead period in the year when
weather disruption could have a hands to play and therefore the impact is much
lower so it could have been much worse but you know I I’m happy to trade other
sports the only reason I choose to trade racing is because I’m good at it press
for a start let’s be honest and there’s lots of it so it suits suits me quite
well you can dip in and out of it fairly easily without too much hassle however I
can work on football I can work on tennis greyhounds golf when there’s a
major around I don’t tend to do the intermediate tournaments but you know
what I’m gonna do in response is I’ll step up activity on those sports they
can sort of fill in the gap so I suggest go off research understand some of those
markets read up look on the academy for some advice on trading those particular
types of markets and that’s an opportunity for you to take that side of
things forward you know I’m not absolutely totally reliant on racing but
obviously as a big part of makes for me so I prefer all of the
racing to be on I’ve actually had a really good start to the year
so that has actually allowed me to be way ahead of where I should be so in
fact you know I’ve earned more this year to take me up to the week before
Cheltenham then I would have done in in the prior year so I’m actually well
ahead of where I expected to be however would have been nice to push even
further ahead and get myself set up comfortably for the flat season but such
is life you know I remember the best every year that I had I was going
absolutely great guns thought I was going to blow everything out of the
water and then we had loads of really bad weather and it just blew out the
card so you just have to accept that that’s one of the the ways that it goes
but typically because things you know dip a little bit at this time of the
year and we have half term when my children were a bit younger I would
typically go away at this time of year so for me it would be you know at least
a couple of weeks where I would probably scale back significantly and focus on
other things particularly the family because during the summer it’s all hell
let loose and I’m just constantly at it from dawn until dusk and I really don’t
have an awful lot of time on my hands so yeah you know we tend to holiday or do a
decent holiday in the winter and it tends to be around this time of the year
I did a video on this my best trade ever I’ll put this on the end of this video
as well up for the seasonality video on and my best trade ever and in you can
see the beneficial effect that it has sometimes by going away at this time of
the year so yeah you know I tend to feel this is a lower impact period of time
the group racing and Australia picks up we’ve got the Champions League about to
come into the mix as well but I sort of strategically place some time off in
February to be able to do other things and of course it’s important to spend
some time with your family and other projects you know it’s very easy to get
sort of too narrowly focused on something and make that you know a
life-and-death when in fact there’s many other things out there that you can do
and work on that don’t necessarily involve trading or all of those things
so I would trade other sports or redouble my efforts on bits of research
but typically I will go away at this time the it’s slightly different this
year because we’re in the last year of Education
for all of my children and yeah therefore we’re not going to go away
this year they’re gonna be revising however I’m going to spend a bit more
time with them we’ll go out and do a few things and I’m just gonna take things a
bit easier just chill slightly um but i neva tably I probably will get involved
in a bear trading here and there I’m not going to just dump it completely and
there’s things that I can work on in the backgrounds to push myself forward later
in the air I’ve got an endless pile of things that I always you know should be
doing and I never seem to get round to doing it so this is a great opportunity
to catch up on those to tidy up a few things sort out stuff make it nice and
tidy and put a few things to bed and work on building the platform for other
stuff so yeah there’s plenty of things to do the impact of the equine flu is
going to cause a shutdown and racing I’d be surprised if it’s over within a week
it’d probably be a few weeks it’s unlikely to be six months probably
unlikely to affect Cheltenham the only thing that has affected child him
throughout my career was back in 2001 when we had the foot and mouth disease
and because there was a farm near Cheltenham they couldn’t run the
Cheltenham Festival but they didn’t cancel it completely they just put it
back now I was very early on in my betting exchange career I hadn’t really
sussed horses at that point so I have no memory or recollection of what the
markets were like around then and I imagine they were quite thin anyway so
we haven’t seen anything like this before a no betting exchange era we
certainly have in the betting industry but also that year 2001 which was the
the the the nearest comparable that I can give you they didn’t cancel the
ground national they everybody was still under restrictions on the foot and mouth
disease but nonetheless they still went ahead with a grand national they just
increased the biosecurity measures and made sure that nobody was affected or
couldn’t be affected and therefore it wasn’t really a major issue they still
managed to go ahead with it so I think the BHA will try and contain the disease
the best they can when they’ve got the right amount of information which i
think is going to take more than a week and I think that some of the major
festivals and other big highlights will probably they’ll find a way to make
those work but ultimately it’s more about
protecting the welfare of the horses having all the information in front of
them then be able to make a rational sensible decision from there it’s
probably a better to act a bit more aggressively right now at this time of
the year than to let it roll on or get out of control but it’d be interesting
to see where things are I’m going to update the forum and I’ll tweet out any
interesting information about quite through and how it’s going to affect the
racing so if you want to keep up to date on it I’m happy to do that and there’ll
be lots of chatter about it in the forum I should imagine but yeah for me it’s a
relatively low impact time of the year I think that would be the same for you
doesn’t matter how hard you work in February you’re not going to have a
total that looks like a June or a July or an August or any of the peak season
months so it’s not a major major issue for me with half term coming up if you
have children it’s probably a good time to have some quality time with them
so yeah I’ll keep you up to date probably not through video but on the
forum and via Twitter and we’ll keep an eye on the situation but fingers crossed
hopefully we’re only going to be headed for a relatively short outage and
definitely in or six months but anyway go off and do some other things explore
some new markets gather some data analyze it spend some time with family
whatever but I think that we could have come at a much worse time of the year
and hopefully we’ll be over within a few months but best of luck whatever you’re
doing you

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  1. Afmfifgh,
    Wow as good as Newmarket heath is and warren hill, I think you have taken this way out of all context. Suggest you get a life and stop talking diaoria on here pls πŸ‘πŸ»πŸ˜πŸ‘πŸ»

  2. I've not been looking at the news about it and was wondering why there wasn't any racing going on at the moment! Enjoy the quiet spell and time off πŸ™‚

  3. Four new positive tests for equine flu have been returned in vaccinated thoroughbreds at the Newmarket yard of flat trainer Simon Crisford. I don't think there is a chance there will be UK racing this week.

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