Goodwood Horse Racing: – A low risk profitable Betfair trade
Articles Blog

Goodwood Horse Racing: – A low risk profitable Betfair trade

August 17, 2019


so at good woods 2017 we had a classic
trade on Betfair it was one of those trades that was difficult to get wrong
that he could have burned a lot of money off and it was possible to see exactly
what was going to occur I’ve talked about this in previous videos I have
given other examples but it’s worth reappraising and looking at what
happened in Goodwood 2017 and whether it could happen again
this year please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to
produce better quality videos and more of them in the future if you’re
interested in learning to trade successfully in sports then why not
visit the better angel Academy where we have more detailed videos so Goodwood
2017 was an interesting meeting for a number of reasons I did a really nice
video on the topography of Goodwood racecourse you should watch that I may
republish it this year because it took a lot of efforts to do but it’s funny
because sometimes when you offer that level of insight people just don’t
understand it but if I put up a video saying how to make 50 pounds in two
seconds without any effort whatsoever everybody will like it but look at the
topography of Goodwood and how that affects in running racing that’s why I
did the video last year but I don’t think many people picked up on it maybe
I should have elaborated it or changed some aspect of it but anyhow I’ll put
that on the end screen of this particular video um as well in this
particular year I’m going to try and just sort of lose the context of
individual years because you may be watching this video at some point in the
future but this year this summer we’ve had a very good summer remarkably I have
picked up a cold from my children which is not great when you’re having one of
the hottest long spell hottest spells summer spells for quite a few years so
if I sound a little bit nasally that’s probably what you’re picking up on
anyhow you know I sold your on but yeah it’s in stark contrast to Goodwood in
2017 in 2017 at Goodwood we just had incessant rain and bad weather
it was absolutely atrocious it’s the worst conditions I’ve seen for Goodwood
for probably as many years as I’ve traded I think back in 2008 we had a
really wet spell during the summer and there were abandoned meetings but of
course Goodwood is a big meeting us on top of a hill so the the water does tend
to drain away and once you’re committed to meeting you have to go through with
it but the problem we had a good would last in 2017 was that the rain was
persistent and not only persistent it was heavy and it was it was awful the
conditions were absolutely terrible and actually led to one of the big races
missing one of its key participants Churchill did not run in the Sussex
Stakes and social media explained to her pretty well I think let me let me bring
up one of the posts I saw there that I thought it was quite amusing but the
overriding thing was that Goodwood the weather was terrible and the problem
that you have is you have to think about the ground because one of the problems
we’ve got this summer while I’m recording this video is that bath
racecourse doesn’t have the ability to water the course that’s on a hill as
well and the problem that they have had is the ground as too hard in fact it’s
like concrete now it’s not very good conditions for running the Thoroughbred
racehorses so they’ve had to switch their next meeting to another course
simply because they can’t walk to the ground the ground is getting harder and
harder as it bakes underneath the Sun and it’s just turned into a rock
basically which is a bit of a problem so typically most horses like sort of
they’re going to be good or either side of good and some may prefer a bit of cut
in the ground and others may prefer to be a little bit firmer but nonetheless
and the going conditions are key to a race as we all know and they’re bigger
courses tends to water the ground is to make those conditions as suitable as
they possibly can but that you know if that’s down to if for example bark
doesn’t have the ability to water water the course but if you look at Yarmouth
there was a great picture taking of Yarmouth this week that shows how hot
this summer has been and how much they’ve actually watered the course at
Yarmouth so if you look at Yarmouth you can see beautiful green of course but
all around it you can see it’s been banked dry so yeah you know the going is
pretty important now if the course gets harder and you want to reduce the going
to something like good to firm not good soft or whatever you can water the
course you can actually make the course a little bit better but the problem you
have and the problem that occurred at Goodwood 2017 was that the ground was
bottomless there was incessant rain very heavy rain and it wasn’t draining fast
enough despite the fact it’s on top of a hill it was absolutely appalling
conditions so the problem that you had was horses that would be better run on
other ground were still running and that was causing the markets to be a lot more
volatile you know horses that preferred good ground were suddenly on soft or
heavy ground and therefore their chance of winning the race was declining and so
their price would adjust to take account of that so it’s important to understand
that when you have heavy rain and that can affect the chances of individual
horses and the market will begin to adjust well horses may be withdrawn
which will radically reshape the market when Churchill was group withdrawn it
radically reshaped that particular race but typically you find especially at big
meetings entrants that turn up for that big meeting will probably run the horses
anyway because you know you never know they may win and there’s too much money
at stake not to do it and people paid for hospitality and everything like that
so horses tend to run but if it’s at a smaller meeting perhaps where the prize
money isn’t so big and it’s lower quality horses then they may just get
withdrawn but that doesn’t tend to happen at the big meetings so very often
that can set off a sequence of events so what happened at Goodwood in 2017 and I
have mentioned this in other videos have a look at them I’ve talked about it on
the blog before an effect I did blog what happened here and so you may want
to go off and visit that particular blog and have a read of it after watching
this video was that we had on one day a sequence of Gamble’s occur but it had a
pretty innocuous start Ryan Moore was on poets world and there was a little bit
of support for poets world when we’re in the pre-race area of the
market and he went on and won that particular race so people and especially
because of the changing ground conditions sort of put one and one
together and made for us it that’s what happens sometimes but basically
especially the big meetings you very often see that the money transfers from
one pattern to another on this occasion right I’m wall on the first race so
let’s have a quick gamble on the next which I think was beat the band if I
remember correctly could stand corrected on that but I think that that was the
one so what actually happened on that next race was a little bit more money
came for Ryan Moore now if you’re trading the market you will start to
pick up on this and you will see that this pattern of activity transfers from
one runner to another so basically when he actually won the
next race on that particular horse and of course you know what happened on the
next race master the world a lot of money started coming in from the master
of the world well so I thought I actually tweeted and said they’ll expect
there will be money you can see that my confidence there was sort of I’m
expecting money to arrive but let’s wait and see and you can tell if if I tweet
something how confident I am because I’ll either say something explicitly or
I’ll just drop a hint in and say well you know this is what I’m expecting to
see so I was expecting to see money on master the world but what actually
happened was that the price came in initially and then it reversed and went
back out and it’s like wall that’s been odd however Ryan Moore went on and won
on that particular race so very very quickly as soon as I could see that he
was in the leading was about to cross the line I just sent out a message
giving you the name of the next horse that he was about to ride which was
Washington DC I remember that one very well and Washington DC was in a
competitive handicap but when you’re at these big meetings people had a few
drinks and people put one on one together and start to form an opinion on
something that could happen and the money starts to go down from Washington
DC it opened it 20s because it was a very competitive handicap and remarkably
the backing just came in and continued and continued and really accelerated so
as soon as I could see that the backing was there I sent our message on Twitter
to inform people that they should probably get involved in this particular
trade so yeah if you see a message like this then that generally tells you I’m
looking at something I’ve seen all of things line up and we’re now seeing the
money see I contrast that to the comment that
I made earlier on the previous horse so yeah it was incessant unrelenting
backing on that particular runner and it eventually went off at five so it
started at twenty s1 off at five s that’s a difference of 15 if you put a
hundred pound on at twenty I’m not saying that you could have done this but
we’re just giving you an idea of the scale here if you put a hundred pound on
that twenty traded out fives in hedge to position you’d have three hundred pound
so can you imagine you put a thousand on you’d have three thousand pound so
unbelievable move maybe you couldn’t get it at twenty you would have got it
further and further down there but nonetheless what I’m saying to you here
is there was a massive opportunity and probably be the best one of meeting I
didn’t really enjoy good words twenty seventeen that much because the rain
made the markets a lot more choppy and difficult to trade and it was I was
trying to unpick the puzzle that was which ones are going to run that the
best and where’s the money going to go and I found that quite difficult during
the week but on this particular day this was so obvious that it turned out to be
the best trading opportunity of the meeting and one of the best of the year
will it happen again this year it all depends upon many different factors this
is they’re trading in a nutshell you know I can tell you strategies and
tactics and things that work but ultimately you have to be there to press
the button and when you are active and at a meeting you have to make that
judgment I can’t make the judgment for you although on this occasion with
Washington does DC I think the message that I sent out there was probably
fairly clear however those moments if you and far between trading generally is
not about definite it’s about probables and likelihoods one way or the other so
yeah the interesting thing about this particular runner Washington DC was
right at the off there was a backorder for 30,000 pound I remember hanging on
and hanging on hanging on put a little bit of money into the market and then it
was a huge chunk owe me the end I’m thinking ah you know I could have got
out at an even lower price but such is life that’s the way that things go and
the other interesting thing is that it lost it was a really competitive
handicap there was no if you look at it from a form perspective and the ground
and all the other things they didn’t seem to be any real
sort of reason why it should be priced at five that was just way way way too
low so you know it would have ended at that particular point no more activity
on any other runner but on this particular day that was the last horse
that was running see all the money went onto it and it lost anyhow so that would
have been the end of any activity within the market but in fact the reality as it
turned out to be quite a good lay opportunity having moved that much from
twenty to five is a ridiculous amount to move can’t see any justification for
that and it turned out to be a good lay anyway but anyhow that’s what happened
in Goodwood 2017 or happen a good would this year who knows we’ll have to look
and see how the way that pans out what the ground conditions are like and if
there’s anything that runs through this particular meeting but it’s pretty big
meeting turns over sort of forty to fifty million pound or thereabouts and
it’s one of the highlights of the year as we travel through our journey so yeah
looking forward to trading it hopefully we’ll get another trade like that you

Only registered users can comment.

  1. Hi Pete, where do you get your info from, where Jockeys race other named horses? And history from previous wins from other horses and jockeys? Thanks

  2. hi peter, i guess its gonna be my first time trading Goodwood and since im very much a beginner what strategy or 2 do you recommend me to start with if i wanna make 50 pound or so tomorrow and also how do i tell between high and low quality race etc like you mentioned in the video? thanks for your time and effort making these priceless videos sir.

  3. Another great video…any chance u could do a video about horses being offered at 1000/1 or 1.01, who is offering that price, why, should u always snatch these prices up or should u be cautious…i suppose u are used to silly newbie questions, so ill ask haha..how can u lose? if u backed at 1000/1 or lay at 1.01?…ive asked about this on the BETANGEL FORUM and got some great answers, but they cant beat one off your videos..thx

  4. my best ever result that market, remember it well, seeing the money coming in & supporting it was unreal, think it lost if memory serves

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *