How To Pick Horse Race Winners The Easy Way
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How To Pick Horse Race Winners The Easy Way

August 29, 2019


Hello everyone and welcome to BetTurtle. Today we’re going to go through how the BetTurtle horseshoe ratings work and we’ll give you some explanation about what the horseshoe ratings are for and how you can use them to good effect to help you with your winner finding. So here we are
at the BetTurtle race card screen, the main screen we’re gonna just scroll down and choose
a race, in this case I’m going to choose the Bangor 1:30 today, bring up the card and here’s the main race card. I’m not going to go through all the features, we’ll do that in other videos but over here we have the BetTurtle horseshoes that we want
to focus on. What I’m going to do is explain each of these columns and what they mean, explain the colours of the horseshoes and these rosettes down the side to explain
what they mean to you. So let’s start with the fitness column here. The fitness column basically answers the
question – is the horse likely to run to its best form today? So if you look at this one, it’s a red horseshoe. Red horseshoes mean that we’ve got serious concerns about the answer to that question. So if you look at ‘Take The Cash’ for
example, it’s not run for 193 days so warning signs flash, it may need the race or it’s had a mishap or if it’s been off that long it’s more likely to be a seasonal debut after a break. So we’ve
looked at this and we think based on the stables, first time out record,
various other factors, we think the rating of this horse is red. We also look at the market view and if we saw that this was green all of a sudden, then we’d maybe taking a less strong view of it. It might go amber or green because our confidence – if there’s market support behind it – – would be improved. If we then look at the amber rating down here, we’ve got ‘Queen Spud’ and it ran 21 days ago so you might be asking why is it being flagged as amber What amber means is, we’ve got some doubts, it could be a good thing, it could be a bad thing. If we look at the last race of this horse, we click in here to look at it’s form, we can see that it ran last time after a 106 days break so it last ran in July before that race and in this particular race it came 2nd, beaten by 15 lengths. It may not have run up to its potential form at this point so it may have still needed the run but I think the thing
that’s probably made this go amber again is that it’s got red rating here which suggests it’s pretty weak in the market for what we would expect. So we have some doubts but they may change throughout the day, if it starts getting market support then that may go green. OK so that’s what the amber rating means. If we pick the green rating now, we’ve
got ‘Dartford Warbler’ who ran 38 days ago, if we check his form, what we’re seeing here is he ran in September and October, 2 recent runs. It’s won one of them and it’s come second so the horse is in form. So from our point of view there’s no reason why it shouldn’t run well again. It’s steady in the market so positive signs for this
horse from a fitness point of view. Moving on to the ability column, this is answering the question – does the horse have the proven ability or the potential to win a race like this today. So let’s start with the red one again, we’ve got ‘Gamain’ here, we basically go in and have a look and you can see it’s won one race, it has won in the class, but based on some factors that we can look at, it ran poorly last time, it’s also weak in the betting market as well as you can see here, we’ve got concerns
about it’s ability to win today’s race so we’ve flagged it as red. We’ve got an amber one here, ‘Take The Cash’ again. You can see by looking at its form figures, it’s won over the distance,
it’s won over the going, it’s lightly raced and it’s steady in the market so on its form and its ability and its potential then there are some question marks and that’s why it’s amber. It’s probably unexposed and might need to improve a bit to win the race so that’s why it’s been flagged as amber.
Again if we look at our friend here, ‘Dartford Warbler’ who happens to be our win tip today, we go into his form and bring
up the table, you can see it’s won 3 times out of seven in the class, it’s won over the
distance twice, it’s got a pretty good strike rate of 20% overall and we think
the horse is well handicapped here, it ran well last time so there’s a lot of
things in its favour today. It still may not win but from what we’ve seen it’s pretty good and is steady in the market too so hence why that’s green. So hopefully that gives you a good flavour of what the ability rating is about. If we move onto the conditions,
and this answers the questions will the going, the track, the
distance, the jockey booking etc, does this suggest that the horse has got the conditions to suit today, to run to its best. As you can see in this particular race our conclusion is that most of them have, we don’t see any reason why they shouldn’t run well. If
you look at a red rating here it might be that they’ve run a lot of times on the going and the
distance and not run to form so we’d have questions marks. An amber rating basically means
that it may be unexposed, never tried the trip, it could improve but there are question
marks and a green is that it has run its best races in these conditions today. so you can be fairly confident. So these three horseshoes that we’ve just gone through, they obviously give you a good view of the horse’s ability, suitability
to conditions and its fitness so you should be reasonably confident about these. However as we know in racing, sometimes these things don’t work out to plan so you will see at times
3 red horseshoes winning as well as the three green ones so it’s always
worth asking the question why that happened so we can all learn from
it and that’s what we do at BetTurtle. In the last two columns, we’ve got the vibes column and this column looks at whether the industry and the press, the trainers, jockeys etc to see if there’s a positive vibe from those people to suggest if a horse is going to run
well today. So I can look at the red ones and that suggests that there’s not much good vibes around, nobody is saying much, they’re not being tipped much in the national press so we mark that red. For amber, if we see some support
maybe one or two tipsters saying yes we like this horse and have given it some good reviews. And for green we may see lots of tipsters tipping this one, good words from the trainers etc so that’s what makes those
go green and it saves you having to look at the market to read everything, we do it for you. On the market side, again what we do for our horseshoes if it’s red, it’s significantly drifted in the market. So throughout the day we’ve seen big odds changes, also if it’s a
bigger price than you would expect then we would be worried about it. If it’s amber its steady in the market, it may have some slight negative or positive movements but not much to shout about.
If it goes green – which we haven’t got anywhere here – it’s a significant
market move , there has been significant support for the horse throughout the day or it’s a lot
shorter than we’d expect then your confidence on that horse should go up. Be careful though because the tendency is for people to jump on the green ones but they don’t
always win and sometimes the value has already gone but when they’re green that suggests that there’s been a lot of shortening of the odds so whilst it
may increase the chance of winning what you might find is that the price isn’t worth the risk so sometimes it’s worth looking at the red and amber ones to see if you can get a little bit more value out of them and
you sometimes see our tips that we’ve tipped in the morning drifting out to red. So if you see our tips which are typically on there in the morning, and we don’t change them
throughout the day then if you see them being red and horseshoes are going red then start get worried. I personally wouldn’t put them on but they do still win. It should be a warning signal to you that’s all. Ok so that explains the horseshoes. What I want to do now is explain the rosettes. We use the word ‘pick’ which means our selection and what what we’ve done is rank them based on the horseshoe colours.
So we’ve got first here is ‘Dartford Warbler’, 2nd as ‘Sir Pitt’ and 3rd ‘Take The Cash’. What happens at BetTurtle is that we constantly monitor the vibes, the market and the conditions so if things change then the horseshoes change and therefore we’d
recalculate these. That can be a bit confusing for people
especially if we tip something in the morning and some of you are asking why are you
changing things but we took the decision that we want to ensure people are getting the latest
information at all times. So it’s best to check things before you bet (I know some of you put your bet on in the morning or the night before because of work) if you can look at this before you put a bet on, it will give you the latest information. So that’s how to use the horseshoes to best effect. Some of you have also asked how do you see the
results, how do you know how we did with horseshoes after the race has finished. You may have noticed that after a race these picks become the results
and we put the finishing postion and the distance beaten in
this column. But if you actually go here after the race has finished and then go
to ratings, this is giving you a really good summary view of the odds, the prices, we’ve got a good summary view of what we think at this
point but after the race has finished what will happen is that these will re-order so that the winner appear up here and the last will be down here but we keep the pick values
and the horseshoes should be able to see what we were picking just before the
race off time and that gives you a good view of how successful we’ve been. Most of the time you will see that one of our top 3 has won the race, sometimes you
won’t, but what we’re looking for is learning so sometimes we ask
ourselves why did these horses not win and why did this particular horse win and
we take that learning back into our calculations for the future. OK so hopefully that’s given you a good
view of the BetTurtle horseshoes and how they work. I’m sure some of you have still got
some other questions or some comments so if you have please post those on Facebook, Twitter or email us and we will get back to you with some answers. Hopefully that was useful and
keep in touch. Thank you.

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