How to use a dutching calculator on Betangel
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How to use a dutching calculator on Betangel

September 5, 2019

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videos so thanks for the comments on touching and all of those right things
and it was inevitable that there were going to be a few questions around it
and some of them were about you know the selections within the market what would
you select how would you select is there any criteria of the issues and the fact
is there are there are loads of things that you can do but it’s really down to
exactly what you’re trying to achieve and you know do you have some insight
into form are you using a purely mechanical system
all those sort of questions and some of those will be questions for you because
it’s down to what age you think you can bring to the market but let’s start with
something that’s quite simple and that is if we look at a market you can see
here we’ve got a novice chaser at Ludlow and if I go into the dutching area here
and click on the favorite we’re going to Dutch for a target profit of 50 if I
click on the favorite can you see the favorite makes up 33 percent of the book
so the favorite is 1/3 of the market the market thinks the favorite has the 33
percent chance of winning do you because if you do then you should back it and if
you don’t you should let but what happens when you’re dutching as you can
see if we just click on that first favorite we’re effectively just backing
the favorite it becomes a value judgment so the first thing that you know and you
realize with dutching as if the price on the favorite is really really short
you’re effectively placing a value back bet that’s all that you’re doing and so
you may as well just place a bet you don’t really deliver much value on top
of touching the only thing I would say because if you use a fixed stake and you
use dutching to place your back a bit then you’re effectively backing in a
proportion to the stake and the book percentage so actually if you place a
backpack this way rather than using a fixed stake then over time if you’re
achieving value after commission then your bank will expand your but your bank
will get bigger and bigger and so there is an advantage to using dutching to
place of but essentially you’re sort of trying to
avoid just placing a bag that you want to do something a bit cleverer so in
this market it’s a forerunner market I don’t particularly like for other
markets for trading for anything to be honest but it’s a forerunner market
let’s have a look at it and if we click on the second favour we can cover 62% of
the entire book of the entire field well I say the entire field I mean what I’m
trying to do here is there are four runners we’ve backed two of them so we
cover 50% of the field with a 60 odd percent chance of winning so your
judgment here is do these two runners have a better than 60% chance of winning
this race because if they do then you would sort of tend to do this particular
position but you can see here that it’s not a very exciting position I mean
you’re still sort of in the realms of value backing effectively you’re not
doing anything particularly clever and you’re not you know it’s just not
exciting it’s not very interesting I say not exciting obviously you know the the
25 pass to it Ludlow could be really exciting but we’re just saying from a
strategy perspective does this make sense is there some logic in the way in
which we’ve approached this and a forerunner market covering half the
field for a 64 percent chance you may be to find something in there but I suspect
that that’s probably not the best place to look for an age so if we have a look
down the market there aren’t a whole load of different races on today some
better than others but if we skip forwards to the 10:00 to 3:00 at
Doncaster let’s go through the same process again and see where we end up so
if we look at the favorite you can see it’s got 15% of the book so you know
it’s saying that there’s a 50% chance the favor or goal to win so let’s try
and get that up to around 60% by dutching and see what happens if we
check the market we’ve got 13 selections in this market so if I go one two three
four five six you can see covering 60 / six percent of the implied chance gets
us six selections out of a 13 run a market and if we look down to
at the bottom in here some of these are a smaller odds but can you see six
horses out of 13 you know one of those could win this race
so we actually give ourself a much broader mix in terms of the chance of
some of these runners going on to win whereas when we looked at the four
runner market we were just basically punting the the front to so that you
know gives you a much wider coverage and more interest within the market than
narrowing your focus down to those two out of that full runner field so you
know this looks like a better proposition overall doesn’t it now
obviously some of this will come into the mix in terms of do you think that
what one of these six is going to win the race but I think you’ve got a much
better judgment of being able to do that much better what you know the the the
scope to do that in this market is much higher than the previous market that we
looked at let me show you something else here as well you’ll notice on the
dutching screen we’ve got it says up here in big bold letters just so that
you’re aware dutching places only bad bets into the market but if we actually
look you’ll see the columns we have up here we have back lay and manual so if
only places back bets into the market why do we have back and lay bets within
the market that doesn’t seem to make much sense well the answer comes from
the book percentage so we’ve backed six selections here for a 66% of the book
we’re going to use a stake of a hundred pound and we’re going to return 49 pound
or we could say we want to return 100 pound by using the bake the bake the
back for a target profit of 100 pound and you can see it says we need a stake
of 200 pounds so to make 100 if any one of these six horses go on to win this
race we need to stake 200 pound into the market now if I back at the current lay
price on these selections can you see what happens our stake goes down so what
we’re doing is we’re gonna place bag bets in the market but we’re gonna back
at the current lay price now those are going to be unmatched bets you need
those bets to get filled you could use a number of ways of doing that but
essentially what you’re doing is you’re getting a better value bet by backing at
the carroll a price and asking for a price within the market and if we went
to manual you could actually ask for another price that doesn’t exist at this
particular moment somewhere slightly further out from the money but by
backing at the Carol a price you squeeze that little bit of extra margin out of
the book which will help you overcome the commission that you’ll pay so I
hinted at this on one of the previous videos that there are ways that you
could to help that the you know touching would allow you to sort of overcome some
of the Commission issues but basically by taking a chunk of the book you’re and
asking for the price within the market you’re actually creating a little bit
more value in there so that will come in two forms it will come in either a lower
stake if you’re backing for a fixed target profit all right if we look at
the back for a with a stake off in other words if we using a fixed state rather
than looking for a target profit then you’ll notice that the return that you
get the predicted profit column that number goes up so whichever way you do
it you’re going to get slightly more money out of that particular position so
this is a good way of aggregating risk but also achieving a better chance of a
payoff is simply by offering a bet to the market now those will be unmatched
bets when they reach the market but you’ll find that over all over the long
period of time that makes a huge difference because the tiny edge here as
you start to amplify over many many markets becomes a huge edge after
thousands of markets so yeah you can dutching is placing back bets into the
market but you can back at the card back price came back at the current lay price
you could back at prices that you nominate that’s a good way of getting
extra value from it but also think about how much of the field you cover are you
covering just one little part of the field because then essentially your
Dutch bet becomes you know an outright bet on that favorite or this small part
of the field it doesn’t deliver much value to you you
may as well just bet the favorite but obviously one of the great things about
touching is that you can actually say any one of X number of runners so here
we’re expanding that list to quite a large number of a number a number of
runners and we’re giving ourselves the capacity to be able to profit if any of
those come in which you can’t do on much smaller fields so there you go a little
bit further explanation a little bit deeper into the dutching side of things
and hopefully that’s given you a bit of a steer on the sort of stuff that you
can and the sort of stuff that you’re
looking for you

Only registered users can comment.

  1. I don't seem to be able to green up using the normal option in the ladder if I've performed a Dutch in the dutching screen…why is this?

  2. You have taken to having a video of yourself in the bottom left. Please do not continue with this in future vids, it detracts from the vid. Your vanity is out of place, we just need the vid and your explanation.Dont let your vanity and ego spoil and detract from future videos.

  3. Hi bet angel loving it so far and thanks. i have been dutching for the first time today on the horse racing. Why does my predicted profit change? the last race i did I dont know what happened. One of my ducth selections came in, i used the fixed price option of £15 the other selections i ticked showed up as losses and message came up said I won 1.08 never gave me my stake back though. So why does the predictive profit change? Thanks

  4. Hi Peter, thanks for the video, would you have a good exit strategy to recommand ? Should the margin maker pointed horse does not triggerat the higher desired price and that the said horse actually ends up winning the race

  5. Please can you explore Dutching more comprehensively? Like how to best manage a Dutching strategy without getting killed by that 100-1 shot! Not that has ever happened to me of course (ahem Leave Maitre Chat at York on 9/9/18)

  6. BEWARE< DO NOT EVER USE FAIRBOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, the stupid berk who designed it forgot the confirm bets tab or any way of altering the odds before placing to your own choosing, meaning in effect you click on the other persons asking odds and get instantly matched, be it odds of 1.01 back on a horse without a hope in fuck of winning in a million years or lay odds of 1000 on a dead cert

  7. How does your software work when betfair decides to shutdown inplay betting for the whole game,leaving you completely unable to cash/trade out on their site, this has hit me several times recently hurting my profits but all betfair say is they have the right to stop betting at any time and any bets placed have no guarantee of cash/trade out options in play.

  8. Hi, great info thanks, could you please tell me though if you dutch a market using manual selection prices, any unmatched best, are they cancelled when the race goes in play?

  9. While practicing on Betangel, I noticed that when you dutch and wait for the end of the race, you end up with a red, even though one of the horses you dutched actually won the race.

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