Peter Webb, Bet Angel – Betfair trading analysis – Horse racing
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Peter Webb, Bet Angel – Betfair trading analysis – Horse racing

August 20, 2019


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below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future so niche market you arrive at you need
to adopt a theme so if we look at this market you can see the favourites been
drifting here so it may seem illogical but you know maybe this drift will
continue but you need to adopt a theme so you can see everything else you know
these two have been backed in third fourth fifth but you can see the
favorite has been going out so you can adopt the idea that the favorite will
continues to go out but we need to see some activity on these two and I can see
activity on this one so I’m going to go in and lay the favorite didn’t quite get
it matched that’s like a 32 pounder out of all that money match that’s
ridiculous and we can see that there’s a bit of pressure on the favour to go up
now typically what what’s going to happen is that it doesn’t won’t go up in
a straight line it’ll go up and then it will come down and then it’ll go up and
then it come down and then it’ll gradually work its way out and in fact
you could sort of see that on the graph you can see how that’s occurred from
there but essentially once you commit to the market what you’re looking for is
what’s happening with all of the other selections because we want to see some
support for that position so you develop a theme you say this is what I think is
going to happen the favourites being back the favorites being late this is
being back this is being laid and then once you commit a position to the market
that’s when you that’s that’s what when you start looking for the opportunity to
exit so I’m going to pitch and exit up here and you should also naturally look
where you feel the market will probably route so you can see the market has not
got anywhere near here yet but I’m pitching in fact I’m gonna pitch it a
little bit lower I’m going to pitch the position at this level so I’m going to
say it’s going to continue its drift and it’s going to head up towards this
particular level and in order for that to occur then we need to see backing
activity as well we need to see continued weakness on the favor I’m
seeing continued weakness on the favorite it’s just a question of will it
reach this particular point within the market are we going to see it get to
this particular level I don’t have a little blip then on my
connection which was slightly worried I’ll have to check that after this race
and so I’ve got my positions pitched in here this is as far as I think it will
probably go now it could go through there if I wanted to I could cancel
those positions and just push them further up if I felt the momentum was
really going for it but I’m not seeing the momentum really go for it in this
particular market because I’m not seeing anything else being significantly backed
at this particular stage in time so got a bit of leeway I can go all the way
down to 206 but what I need to do is see continued weakness on the favorite so
really I want to see some lay money appearing over here that would be
particularly helpful and preferably we want to see small amounts of money over
on this side we’re still some way off from the start of this race we’re not
seeing significant volume at the time but I’m going to stick with my
hypothesis that this is gradually going to drift out we need to see some real
money in to confirm that that’s what is going to happen we’re going to leave
that position for just a second and we’ll return to it in a minute when
there’s more money so just restart to the video earlier than expected because
somebody just put a lay better in the market you can see the effect that it
had it helped push the price out but can you see the benefit of having those
orders much further RP if we do get a bit of crazy activity like we’ve just
seen there those all just get taken out now I’m fully expecting that this will
retrace a little bit because there was a sudden spike and a large amount of
volume you know it’s not unusual for it to retrace in fact it’s just gone off
the top of the ladder so we may have got a slightly better trade but the real
money hasn’t arrived in this market and we’ve managed to do our trade even
before it has arrived from here on in I would be a little bit nervous about
seeing if the price is going to go way higher because we’ve seen such a huge
spike out that you would expect it to come back a little bit you would see
that because the price has gone too far in one direction it wouldn’t be unusual
for it to probably start heading back maybe we should place those orders a
little bit higher but you can see it’s starting to come back in this direction
already so and there’s there’s not allowable
they don’t like this horse for whatever reason I’ve got no pictures the moment I
can’t see why maybe there’s an issue with this particular horse I’m pretty
sure they would have shown us if there was an issue and I can’t see that there
is a problem that’s all so I’ve got pictures now but you can see it’s more
or less settled back to the level at which we were anticipating that it would
do so despite the fact we didn’t perhaps catch the top of this trade by putting
the orders in the market well ahead of time
we’ve been matched anyway but also when the price went up and headed through
that area what we didn’t do was jump on the back of it and suddenly start laying
over the more money why because it reaches a natural extreme before coming
back in the other direction which you can quite clearly see on the graph now
so interesting trade various elements in there that you will find of use but
again we’ve got another profit there you

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  1. didn’t think you got involved that far out, especially with less than £150k matched, the times I’ve seen a move early but not got on, now I’ve see you has helped

  2. I like what you said about making a choice early and then focusing on that one selection/horse. I'll have to incorporate that, too much trying to read the market seconds ahead is dizzying and counter-productive.

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