Royal Ascot: Real Horse Racing Trading Analysis
Articles Blog

Royal Ascot: Real Horse Racing Trading Analysis

August 12, 2019


please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future so I thought it’d be interesting during a skits to fire up a
spare screen and use some more sort of ordinary sticks and show you a couple of
simple things what you can see I’m doing here is I’ve put some money into the
market and established position at four point four and this will give you a feel
for just how slow these sort of large markets are and the way that they work
and how you can actually leave huge amounts of gaps in your decision-making
and feel absolutely fine and under control so we’ve established a position
here so it’s a reasonable sized position we’re not being particularly aggressive
but what we’re doing is were backing the favor here in the expectation that the
price will come in and the reason that we’re doing that is we can see that
there’s been a lot of activity on the favorite near the bottom of its trading
range is probably headed towards four can you see the money stacked below
there’s loads just above four and not much below it and there’s a bit of money
behind it but not much then you can see the progression of the graph here you
can see it’s been coming in coming in coming in and there’s been reasonable
amounts of money attacking the price at around this level but the thing that
you’ll notice more about this trade is just how slow it is so you can see I’m
putting in closing positions here and there very tight to where we’ve actually
entered the market simply on the basis that because it’s a big race meeting
we’re not expecting it to move that much so the position that I’ve established
I’ve put into the market and we’re just expecting it to move somewhere down
towards four and as we go through this video which is a very long and slow one
now because that’s the way that these markets work you’ll see how I manage the
position and how things develop from there so the natural state of the market
is actually for the price to bob up and down and move around a little bit it’s
very very rare for you to be able to establish the position in the market and
for it to go exactly the way that you want it
the moment at which you establish the position so it’s more important that you
establish the position you wait for that to mature but if it starts to go wrong
and you see that the reason that you did that is deteriorating then you just dump
the position you just think you know what I made a mistake I’m out of here
but you can see here that I’m expecting the price to come in it will probably
wobble a bit and then it will come in another tickin and wobble a bit come in
and other tickin and wobble a bit you can see here the position we don’t feel
is vastly under threat the traded the money traded at the current prices if
you look at four point four it’s flashing that’s telling you that money’s
being traded there and if you look on the right-hand side of that you’ll see
the amount that’s going through so there’s sixty seventy thousand you just
saw there there’s a little bit of money that pulled the price down now the
reason you’re not seeing my mouse cursor wiggle around and indicate things to you
is because I’m busy trading on another screen here so on a big meeting like a
tasket I’ll trade quite aggressive in my main counter you can see I’ve just come
in here to modify some orders I’ll trade quite aggressively on my main account
I’ll do that – probably do one other thing and then I’ve got this screen up
so I’m effectively looking after four positions in the market here because if
I’m trading on one screen very simple to understand what’s going on within the
market just need to come back and modify positions every now and again so what
you saw me just do there as I’ve just pulled a couple of positions up so what
I’m sort of saying is based upon the amount of time that we’ve got left and
the equipment that I’m expecting I’m just exiting the trade slightly quicker
here so basically the prices come down hasn’t come down well there’s not enough
momentum to pull it much further so all I did was nudge up my closing position
I’m basically just saying you know what I’m not sure that all of these are going
to get matched so I’m just going to pull the position up by one and you’ll see me
come back and do this on occasion but at the moment if the price goes to four
point five and bumps back out towards there there’s no panic because our pivot
position is partially closed and we would still make a profit even if we
exit at four point five but if you notice what happens here
the price ticks up towards 4.5 then you can see a little bit of money coming in
at 4.4 and you can see that I’ve just spread out the closing trades again so
I’m now saying that I don’t expect it to reach 4 but it will go through those
orders at some point I’m not panicking I’m not jumping out and very often what
you find trade is doing is they’ll get in at the bottom of this range they’ll
get out at the top and then they’ll repeat that again and again to lose
money so what you’re trying to do is you’re trying to focus on where is the
market generally headed you can see me looking at the volume here saying well
there’s a lot being matched at 4.4 so I’m expecting that to go down to 4.3
which it has and that’s all I’m doing I’m not expecting any any fireworks from
this market it’s a big market it’s a slow market money is going to come in
it’s going to influence where the price is going to go next but it’s unlikely to
move a tiny tick so that’s all I’m doing is just keeping an eye on where that
money is being matched and how frequently it’s being merged and
therefore what the next likely tick is so you can see loads of money above and
below it this price isn’t going to move dramatically with that amount of money
in it we’ve established our position in the market quite effectively so we don’t
need to worry about that it’s just really a question of how much time we’ve
got left how many orders are going to get fill and do we need to pull some of
those up to get them filled a bit quicker so our position is closed before
the start of the race so we go into the market with a certain stake we’re trying
to feed that stake back into the market here you can see the plasma activity
it’s lower highs and when it’s gone relatively flat here but there’s good
longing so that’s the stage of the market that we’re in at the moment
there’s a limited amount of time left so we have to start thinking about you know
how to do it close but we can see there there has been very little activity
above where the current price is plenty below it so we’re anticipating that it
may come in a tick or two and that’s where we’re going to put off closing
positions but there comes a point in the market where it begins to be a race
against time there’s only a limited amount of time left and you have to get
out of your position whatever that position is whether it’s a profit or
loss by the time you reach post time so it’s important that you do that so
you can see here there’s lots of money at four point five not much at four
point four it’s possible that it could get down to four point two when we have
an order waiting but if we don’t think we’re going to achieve that you’ll see
me come back across and start dropping orders back in so can you see four point
five there’s loads of support there so what I’ve done is put two closer to
where that money is being matched and cancelled two further down so our net
closing position is still in equilibrium what you can see on the screen there is
how much we need to get matched it’s just a question of where do we get that
matched in this particular market so we need a little bit of money to get
matched at four point four at the moment there’s 170,000 match to four point four
and about 18,000 matched at four point five so there’s 14,000 waiting to get
matched at four point four I could move the position up there or maybe some new
come and take it boom there you go and now we’re in a good position to get
matched at four point three we may not get match difficult point three or in a
good position to get managed and we didn’t so the price goes back ups four
point four but because we’re in a good key position to get matched at four
point three we may as well leave it there but can you see how the market is
going down a bit going up a little bit going down going up a little bit going
down going up a little bit going down and when you’re actively trading you
look to exploit that activity what a lot of traders do when they’re first active
and in the market is they’re in and out all over the place trying to
second-guess exactly where that movement is going and I’m not doing that I’m
basically saying this is the general direction in which this is going this is
where it’s roughly headed and I’m going to put all my positions around
exploiting that I don’t care what happens in the very very short term I’m
just going to put my orders there we’re going to gradually get them filled and
then when we approach post time you know that will be it will get out of whatever
we’ve got that hopefully a profit and more often than not it generally is if
you look at what’s been happening to a tasket week this week it’s been a very
good week many couple of mistakes generally on the
first couple of races but by the second or third race I’ve got a good feel for
the market and I’m beginning to push harder and using larger stakes and have
generally done very well from that I’ll do a proper video on them a skip and a
summary of what happened to ask it probably in the next week or two so you
can see what’s going on there but it’s been a very good week but this is
typically how this type of a market will exhibit it itself a tasket you can see
they’re very slow it’s a little bit down there’s big money came in there at four
point five that will help us get filled at four point four and you can see that
you know it’s actually they’re quite done really there isn’t a great deal
going on here but this is the nature of some of these larger markets this is why
some people find them harder to trade because they’re so different from the
rapidly moving pinging around that you get in some of the smaller markets but
nonetheless it doesn’t mean that you can’t trade it just means that you need
to adapt your style to make sure that you’re doing an effective job here and
doing it within the time frame and the sort of movement that you expect to see
so you can see there’s been two hundred thousand match to four point four one
hundred and seventeen thousand at four point five you know gradually the
money’s going through there we’ve been matched at four point four so people get
match to four point three fairly quickly you can see I’ve just taken the order
out at four point four and then the final option that will the final
operation I should say that we do in the market is to hedge it so overall our
total profit on this market would have been about 150 pounds divided by four
point four we’re just going to come out at about thirty or pound thirty four
pound and we can hedge that position now and move on to the next race but yeah
you know I know I’ve been talking a lot in this video to fill in what’s going on
in the market but this is how these markets behave and I thought it may be
interesting for you to see that and to see how the trade go through with
reasonable sticks you you

Only registered users can comment.

  1. thank you; once in green; tend to place a couple of small happy bets for some mid-range or high profitability items .

  2. Thanks Peter! Please more trading videos like this one. As i remember Benbatl won that race for Saeed, might be wrong 🙂 I have a question how many ticks is your average stop loss?

  3. Hey Peter, Great video. Thank you. Quick question if you dont mind … I notice you didnt green the position, was there any reason for this?
    Ps Cant wait for the course a week on Monday
    Dean

  4. Excellent video and presentation, Peter. All your videos are helpful and contain intriguing insights (when I listen hard) while you share your obvious expertise. Thanks for all the effort. Please continue making them – I always look forward to see what you have to say and share.

  5. When you opened that position expecting downward movement, the commentary mentions lots of money sat below and not much above…. I would have expected a bounce (and been wrong).
    Was your judgement based the large volume traded at the bottom of the range?, ie pressure on the price. My WoM reading approach was clearly wrong, and that's why I'm watching and you're broadcasting.
    Does your interpretation apply to most markets, or just the larger meetings where the money is less likely to suddenly dry up?

  6. Why don't you make your Cursor Larger and ideally with a yellow halo around it so we can see where you are pointing.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *