Sports trading tips from professional Betfair trader – Peter Webb
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Sports trading tips from professional Betfair trader – Peter Webb

August 21, 2019

please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future if you’re interested in learning to trade successfully in sports
then why not visit the BET angel’ Academy where we have more detailed
videos so I thought I would follow up with the video that I did at the weekend
because I was talking about how Cheltenham went and how you’d have to
adjust to the new state of the markets as we moved in to a different sort of
racing so what I did on Monday was I traded the card in sort of the manner in
which I would expect I didn’t go massively aggressive I went very
cautious and actively traded it in the way that I was expressing within the
video so that you can actually see what the results look like so how did it go
what I went okay actually I traded 19 races overall and I lost on three of
those but I was able to contain the losses on those two quite tight numbers
and I did okay on all of the rest of the races on 16 out of 19 so had a strike
rate of about 85% now as I’ve said in a number of videos I’m
quite likely to get a strike rate where I get sort of seven or eight out of ten
right and I’ll lose on the others and that’s sort of the natural progression
that I’ve seen over a very large number of years so that was sort of about where
I expected but actually probably slightly higher I would have expected on
sort of 20 races maybe to lose four or five races and the fact is that I
actually managed to do a little bit better on that front if you look at the
average amount one as well you can see that I’ve won on average a reasonable
amount and I think the average win per race was around 14 I may have to stand
corrected on that but you can have a look at the stats and work it out for
yourself but my average loss was absolutely tiny and that’s typically not
that unusual for me although I have to say that when I was doing it on Monday I
knew that I was going to post a video about it so I was probably a little bit
more cautious and then I would typically trade because when I’m at Chatham it’s
all about throwing as much money market as I possibly can and when we’re
in these other markets then I tend to be a little bit more defensive but because
I knew I was going to record a video on it and I was going to publish the
results I was extra defensive so I probably could have maybe made a bit
more money if I would have traded it more aggressively but I didn’t I was
sort of just trying to go for a nice neat result effectively so it’s funny
because even I suffer from performance anxiety and everybody suffers from
performance anxiety especially England football is when they’re about to take a
penalty but I was still able to trade very effectively but maybe I could have
probably pushed a little bit harder and I would have got some bigger results but
I probably would have got a few more losses as well but as it was as the day
progressed I just kept things neat and tidy so probably my bad for not pushing
as hard as possible but hopefully will give you an illustration as to sort of
what you expect to see typically I would have expected a more losses be them to
be slightly bigger but on this particular day I was reading the market
pretty well and slotted into the zone fairly quickly and was able to find
reasonable entry points in most of the markets and that’s what accounts for the
lack of losses and also the size of them which of which being very small but
typically as you saw in the other video that’s normally not the case and I’m
guessing I was influenced by what I wanted the outcome to be so yeah
necessarily you can see that it’s handing out pretty much the way that I
indicated that it would do in the previous video now I know on the
previous video I used some old results to show you because I thought that that
would be relatable to what you would probably be trying to do in the market
using smaller stakes and trading in that sort of particular manner but when I was
thinking about it at the weekend I was thinking well you know it would be a
good idea if I just posted it up exactly what happened on Monday and you can see
it there but generally what you’re looking at when you’re trading is three
different things you’re looking at your strike rate you’re looking at how much
you win and how much you lose and you’re sort of thinking well isn’t that like
just one trade well typically not because if your strike rate is very high
then it’s possible that when you actually win
you can win much less than you lose I know that sounds a little bit odd but
but it’s true basically the higher your strike rate is then you don’t have to go
for as much profit and when you get losses they can be a little bit bigger
as well but if your strike rate comes all the way down then that equation
there changes all over the place so typically you know the perfect scenario
would be very high strike rate when you win you win dis new mats when you lose
you lose almost nothing which is what I managed to achieve on Monday but that’s
not the norm the norm is our balance between all of those three things so
when I’m looking at record-keeping that’s what I tend to monitor all of the
time I’m looking at how often do I win when I win
how much do I win and then that itself will actually tell me how much I can
afford to lose and that’s pretty much where I started trading but when I
started trading I was doing it the other way around I’d go into the market throw
some money around see how much I lost and then work out what I needed to do to
win so I would go into the market and actively trade it figure out what my my
general loss was and I think I’m like if I’m losing this much then I need to win
this much on average and my strike rate has to be around here so the strike rate
is generally defined and when I mentioned strike rates it’s the
percentage of trades that you win against the percentage that you lose but
what I’m talking about when we talk about strike rate it’s predominantly
defined by how good you are picking positions within the market but you’ll
be surprised because some of its dependent upon the level of trade so if
I go in and I scalp a market for example I’ll get a very high strike rate so you
know and that’s because the market moves in small bumpy lines basically and
therefore if you put two orders in you’re gonna get both of them filled
reasonably quickly and you will get them filled with a high strike rate so if you
go for a move that’s less than 5 ticks for example your strike rate should be
generally high unless if you’re actually cutting out that position very quickly
because then what happens is then you negate that immediately by I hope by
lowering your strike rate by cutting out the position too quickly before it’s
matured for a profit so when scalping you’re going for a one
tick profit and you’ll probably get that quite frequently but if you’re going for
a larger move and then the larger the move you go for
your strike rate will fall but the amount of profit they get from that
route will be quite high so it will offset losses that you make when you get
that wrong so typically if you’re scalping he wants to put a trade in the
market you have a very high strike rate but you’re limiting your potential
profits to one so that effectively frames the amount of profit that you can
afford to lose so scalping becomes entirely strike rate dependent however
if you’re doing a large trend or a swing trade and what you’ll typically find is
that you’re going to have a very very large move and your strike rate could be
a little bit lower but when you get into one of those trades and you realize that
it’s a mistake if you dump that position reasonably quickly then your strike rate
will go down but when you catch those big moves as long as you’re getting into
the market at a moment when those big moves are likely to occur then that will
more than offset your lower strike rate and the more frequent losses that you’re
getting so there’s a saying in the stock market which is cut your losses and let
your profits run that’s a strategy you would necessarily apply if you’re trying
to catch a large move within the market but yeah strike rate can be defined
quite a bit by how much money you’re asking for if you’re asking for one tick
his strike rate is going to be high but if your should be high because if it’s
not high enough you’re not gonna make money but when you’re looking over a
much much bigger move you can afford for your strike rate to be a little bit
lower but for your losses are going to dwarf the amount of times that you get
it wrong because you go into the market you realize you made a mistake and you
dump it and then you try again and then eventually the move occurs so yeah
wait the successful trading is all about the combination of lows all those things
so what I do is I go into the exchange that I’m using I’ll download a
spreadsheet of all of my activity over that particular day and then I’ll
arrange that spreadsheet in such a manner that it has how often I won how
much I want when I did win and how much I lost when I when I eventually lost and
that gives you you know how you’re operating within the market so if any of
those numbers are out of kilter then you know what you have to address if your
losses are too big and probably you’re not getting into the market at the right
time or you’re letting those losses run for too long if your losses are small
and your strike rates reasonable but you’re not really making much then you
probably need to let those trades run a little bit further so it’s the
interaction between strike rate and the win and lost value that defines whether
you’re trading successfully or not but if you don’t keep any notes then you’ll
never know what’s generally going wrong you know as your strike rate only 30% is
it 70% and how much you’re winning in proportion how much you’re losing that
will guide you in terms of what you needs to adjust in your particular
trading so you can see when I trade it on Monday I traded 19 races I skipped a
few of them because that was the easiest way to avoid a loss I just looked at
them and nothing sort of registered up here they just I couldn’t see an
opportunity so I just skipped over them and that can be for any reason you could
be in a market that you recognize but nothing happens or you could just look
at the market and say well I don’t know what’s happening and therefore the best
thing to do is to avoid it too many people get involved in a trade simply
because they want to make some money and they don’t think through whether there
is an opportunity to do something there or not so yeah if you look at what I did
a Monday that’s typically what I’ll sort of be doing around you know that the
weaker parts of the card and the weaker parts of the week at certain times of
the year but as the quality improves then I get a little bit more aggressive
and those numbers begin to right that’s a rice so I do increase the low my steak
according to what I expect to see according to how I expected to trade and
exactly what I’m trading and you can see that in comparison to what I was doing
at Cheltenham last week you know it’s a it’s a dramatic change but there’s no
way I could do what I did a chart them last week and if I did what I’m doing
now at Cheltenham then I wouldn’t earn II think so I have to flex in and out of
that over the course Thea but the fact is that P&L from Monday is what’s going
to make up 80% of the year and the remaining 20% will be much bigger
opportunities at bigger events on bigger days at bigger races and so on so I hope
that that’s given you an insight as to how you’re likely to trade and what
you’re likely to see and how trading in a week like this week and how trading on
Monday was very different from how I traded Challon them last week you

Only registered users can comment.

  1. Informative video Peter! Is your record keeping automated (is so how?) or do you manually record data after every race/trading session?

  2. well i've tried trading a year now and all i've done is Lose .Some people like me can't make it pay. some people can make it pay i'm one that cannot make it pay so good bye to trading for me, i've had enough, but good luck to people that make it pay

  3. Is it possible to automate on bet angel to back a horse at a higher odd only after it is layed at a smaller odd? For example bet angel should only trigger the bet for backing a horse at odds of 10 only after this horse is layed at odds of 2. Pls reply.

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