[STEM] Handicapping Horse Races
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[STEM] Handicapping Horse Races

August 12, 2019


If I can get started, just because I know Robert has a lot
of really amazing information. I got a sneak peak at his PowerPoints. Perks of being the coordinator.>>[LAUGH]
>>So I just want to make sure he has enough
time, he does have a class after this so I don’t want him to be too late
to this next batch of students. So for those of you who don’t know me,
my name is Erin Harwood and I’m a staff coordinator and also the person who is coordinating
all these staff seminar series. Before we get to Robert,
I just want to give a little plug for our very last pod of the quarter,
which will be on Friday December 4th, which is the last Friday of the quarter. And it will be from psychology, and
she’ll be talking about relationships between children and pets, and then how
does that influence their development. And then how does that play into
the cycle of abuse that you can see sometimes in some families and
in some communities? So I’m excited about, everyone has so
far has been so amazing. So I’ve learned something from every
single one, and it’s been really great. So I’m excited for this one, and
I’m particularly excited too for Robert’s. When he first made the proposal to me, I
think it was before Fall quarter started, and he and I hadn’t even met face to face,
I immediately was like, Yes! [LAUGH] Jen, who shares office space with
me, she probably even heard me say that. This is such a cool idea. And so I was really excited to
have Robert come today, and be able to share some information with us. And a little bit about the math
behind all of this as well. For horse racing and betting, and
then how exactly does the system for handicapping horse races work as well. I will turn it over to Robert. [INAUDIBLE]
[LAUGH]. All right.>>All right.
So, before I begin, I have to kind of plug, two of my students got second and third place in [INAUDIBLE]. So I’m pretty bad with [INAUDIBLE]. [LAUGH] Just to be clear about that. [INAUDIBLE]. So I’m just going to save you the trouble. So just a tiny little bit. We’ll be talking about [INAUDIBLE] horse
raes, with lessons in the stock market, we need a little bit of
medicine with our sugar today. Make sure this is not that big for
[INAUDIBLE]. That’s [INAUDIBLE]. Okay, is that better for [INAUDIBLE]? So horse racing, right? I say the words, and
I think we all feel a little skeeved out. We all kind of get a little ew. Why do we talk about
this in the first place? And in general gambling as well. So gambling is actually
kind of the genesis of almost all of the probability
in statistics. It started with the 17th
century mathematician Ardano. There’s a lot of awesome
cool stories Nafta rules or all these other great people. Now later on, I noticed this, Perdonis was the first to actually find
what are called theoretical probabilities. Now empirical bonds. And he did it mainly by this annotated. From there,
Pascale had some great back and forth, some letters that he sent to
one-another to try and solve, basically, roulette, another kind
of dice game as well. They really kind of tried to
figure out what’s the mathematical conflict
>>Have here. Or however you want to say that name,
also hits more as well. Really talked about the gambling itself,
okay. From these period modest beginnings,
kind of put that idea some probability from gambling kind of
what else can we do with these? And from there it’ went off, right? Snowballed into a Faust with Robert Gauss
prints himself vessel in Oregon and after that they’re trying
to do this in Barkof. If you donate kind of you
know probability this physics you’ve heard these names before. All of this was generated basically
by swarthy French people trying to comp each other out of money. So from very humble kind
of skeevy beginnings, we get whole range of [INAUDIBLE] right? I also have friends horse racing. And you might also think about this. Is the actual sport, cruelty to animals? There hasn’t been [INAUDIBLE] past in the
history of this happen I think if you were to get rid of the whole thing, unfortunately, that would put a lot of
people out of work, out of business. This sport that we’ve had for
centuries would go away, essentially. But lets just forget all of it. So this is from,
The Ugly Truth About Horse Racing, Written by Fernando Cohen in The Atlantic,
March 2014. This is a recent article and
basically a response from PETA, listing a reform about horse racing. And it is an issue,
not that I would say it’s not or anything. However, this reform is on the way. Anyone point out when the racing form? Wednesday’s edition, it’s kind of about,
not just past performances, as we what say, but also news as well. This guy from New York
actually was found that he was his horses and he has got a lifetime
ban You know, for what it’s worth. So it’s not that, you know,
we’re trying to avoid this issue. They do take it very seriously. And they’re starting to do more. With devotion for horserace integrity. [COUGH]
They’ve kind of, right now I just want you
to fill this form racing. Paragraph at 115.
Really trying to make sure that the sport is fair, also it would be the first kind
of national body to regulate doping and testing the horses as well as making
sure horse abuse doesn’t happen. because quite frankly, these are beautiful
mammals and they shouldn’t be abused. So, if you want to know more about that,
Coalition for Horse Racing Integrity, I make no bones about the good and the bad
here, honestly since it is such a large institution, so old right, and this goes
back hundreds and hundreds of years, I feel like needs to happen I can’t
just let this whole thing go. So onto more kind of base concerns,
right, am I going to tell you how to win? And like any good academic, I’m not going to answer that with a solid,
definitive yes. I have to say no and qualify what I will
be sharing with you a little bit, right. So One rule, only one rule. I’ll be talking about trends. These are some things I’ve noticed over
kind of my few years of doing this. I’ve also kind of picked up some
leads from reading different books, listening to different columnists and
as well. And then also some variables. Right it’s been kind of said in
the culture [INAUDIBLE] I think that each course in one race, even kind of taking
into account 100 different variables, we’ll have an accurate model to
predict what happens in the end. So obviously [INAUDIBLE] right,
what we’ll talk about today are the ones that I think have So, you might say okay well,
gotta win, but is gambling worse? Obviously yes, it is very risky that’s why
it’s called gambling and not investing. [LAUGH] And quite frankly I don’t know why
we talk to people given college students or Administrators or college instructors,
so none of us have any money.>>[LAUGH]
>>So we gotta take that into
>>[LAUGH]>>But from this idea that gambling is risky, I’m giving you the only rule
when it comes to gambling, okay. That is you never bet with what’s
called scared money, right? You never bet with your rent money,
you never bet with your insurance, you never bet with anything that you
actually need for survival, right? When you go to actually place bets
assume that money is gone, okay? There is no get rich thing, there is no definitive system that
will always win 100% of the time. You may lose all the time and
you have to be ready for that. There are services that will help you
get out of gambling addiction as well, if that becomes a problem, I mean,
you’ve got [INAUDIBLE] services. And unfortunately I didn’t pull out
the [INAUDIBLE] application, but it’s out there. So, why am I talking about this? Right. How did I get into this whole thing? So I went to a graduate school at
the city college of New York, online, in Manhattan in Harlem. And it was an awesomely great experience. I got there about July 2006. My then girlfriend,
current wife was working in the city. We were living in Jersey City at
the time and she would go into work and I would patiently go in with her. And as lo and behold, right across
the street on 7th Avenue and 37th Street, 38th Street was this thing. This OTB.
And so being a math private tutor [INAUDIBLE] I just
was very curious about this. What were these people doing here? What was this whole thing about? Using numbers in this weird and funny way? I went in and
you can imagine what I saw, right? Pretty bare bones, no real furnishings,
migrants anywhere. And the population was probably not what
it should have been using their money with that. People came from varied backgrounds,
very different areas, it was not that great of
a little place to be in. But over time as it kind of went to
this and other locations as well. I came to realize that there’s something
kind of bigger going on, right? As with any committed endeavor,
there’s a culture associated with it. And over time I kind of
realized the culture, right? The values and the rules that this
culture has reflects the mathematics in a kind of funny and unique way. So I’ll kind of take on that a lot for
throughout the presentation. What was great about going to different
off track betting locations in New York City was that you would
go to a different location and the entire culture may change. The entire ethnic group of that
neighborhood would be represented in these off track betting locations. This one was the one right across
the street from Rockefeller Center. And for whatever reason,
it was pretty much predominantly Irish. You would hear Gaelic, you would
hear varieties of different accents. And that was kind of a funny thing. You would go down to
the one in China Town. And that would be an entirely
different portal right? As soon as the number
eight appeared anywhere, he would bet on that based on Chinese
numerology and all this other stuff. You would go to the one where later on
up in Inwood, very top of Manhattan, and you would go to
the George Washington Bridge terminal. And in that terminal would be
a location that would be predominantly Puerto Ricans and Dominicans. And that was really just different, right. They had a whole different
way of all of this. In all of these there was commonalities
which I’ll talk a lot more about. Unfortunately the off track
betting location closed in 2010. This is the city that never sleeps right,
it just kind of keeps on changing and moving. It mainly went out of business because
of how the funding was structured for education they were kind of giving money
to, they were taking the money out of operating expenses
a non-profit which is crazy. Who knows. Anyway they actually closed down and
in New York. Talk about and Belmont racetrack. This slide is a little hard to see I know,
this is Leonardo, this art from the year EO Wilson, this is that location I was referring
to before and I actually met this man. Earl Wilson, this is Leonardo
is what’s called his stupor. He would literally go around and as people
would throw down tickets he would grab them and then check them to see if
there was actually any money on that. This article describes that he makes
about, or he made $48,000 a year and worked hours about $100 to $300 a day. So there’s something funny going on here,
right? Lots of money being changed hands. Money being thrown on the floor for
whatever reason. What’s happening here? So I really kind of took
more interest in this. To help with the kind of
culture aspect of this, I’m going to use one of my favorite
actors from Law and Order, Dennis Farina. He is just the embodiment of
[INAUDIBLE] masculinity [INAUDIBLE]. He pulls bravado,
that has good fashion sense. [LAUGH] He has all of this stuff,
he is really of what New York is. All these contrasts, the push and
pull of the city, but also very high minded
about a lot of things. [INAUDIBLE] in no way knows [INAUDIBLE]>>[LAUGH]
>>So, the fundamental kind of aspect that we
have to really realize is the gambling and how this works is very different
than gambling against the house. In the traditional sense of
gambling against the house, you are betting against the itself, right. And on average the casino
sets up these games so that they always have a positive expected
return, you always have a negative, right. This is expected value, this is a need for kind of principle investment,
investment general. Let’s compare that to what
happens at the track, okay so, betting overall does
happen at the track itself. A lot of places will do
what’s called telecasting. So they’ll actually set up live feeds
of the races in other locations and people at those locations can bet and
make bets on those races as well. When after getting back from Portland,
my wife and I went to Portland, that from Belmont Stakes setting and you bet
it on that horse on the race from there. So you can do this pretty much at any
of these locations across the nation. So here you are at the track-
>>[LAUGH]>>And you are already betting against every one of us. Okay?
This is a system called parimutuel betting. And so the psychology of this get’s a
little interesting because you’re not just betting against the house or a fixed odds,
you’re betting against other people with odds that are constantly
changing based on their bets. Okay?
So there’s kind of some fun dynamics going on here. This kind of comes into,
what’s involved in making the bet. There’s kind of three estimates here,
right? There’s the actual making a bet itself,
[INAUDIBLE], the horses, the information about the horses, and
then also the betting public right, and the psychology of what’s happened. Let’s get to the easy stuff anyway, let’s talk about how to make a bet,
how does this whole thing work? So let’s say for instance, we have these
three horses, Early Speed, Fast Winner, and Last Chance. With these close positions, one, two,
three, the traditional way of happening And this is the one horse,
the two horse, and the three horse. And what I’m kind of
pushing here is the win. So let’s imagine all these people
making bets on these horses to win. And this is cool, thinking the total
amount of money bet on this horse to win. So you can see here which
horses did they bet?>>Early Steve [INAUDIBLE]
>>Early Steve, right? They have the most money on him. All right. And so, the fever kind of has some
weird stuff going on with it. Let’s say for instance,
that fever does win. So, what happens to that pool, right? That thousand dollars is divided up. It’s, what happens is they track
each other, and they give about 15%. So we have now $803 left
to distribute to everyone. One. The remaining pool is divided by
how much was spent on that horse. So in this case $1.70 for
each dollar wagered, all right. And so people can make different
amount of bets on these horses, right. So if you made a dollar bet on early
leading to win, you’d get back $1.70. All right, for
reasons I’m not going to go into, most win bets are based on a $2 debt. And so in this case you have
gotten back that $3.40. And you can scale this all right? if you bet $100 on this
you’ll come back at $70. So, let’s hear an example really quick. Let’s assume Now was
Fastrunner the favorite? No, in fact Fastrunner was
the least favorite, right? So, back each other only 50%, but
now we’re dividing between less amount of money, so in total, you’re going to be
back $4.25 for each dollar you wager. In this case.
And again, you scale this thing up, right? For $2, it’s. So, the question now comes, is,
will you win much money with the favorite? No. It was just a few cents more, right? There’s some terminology
here we need to discuss. The favorite to win is called the chalk. It’s called chalk because way back in the
day you see here this gentleman, you know, erasing this big chalk board, with
the odds but what happened is the favorite horse, his odds would be changed the most
and so it’d really be the chalk with dust and that’s the same and people would say
I would just bet on the chalk, right. The favorite horse. [INAUDIBLE] So what does this mean for us? In general betting on the chalk is
a relatively safe bet as we will win about a third of the time. There has been studies that show
[INAUDIBLE] itself will pick the winner about a third of the time however
that payout is not all that great. This leaves us to our first trend,
betting with the crowd, produces your payoff, right. Betting with everyone else, because if you
think about it, from the previous example. If The Favor wins, you only have
basically, 500 minus the 50%, is split among everyone who won,
Is that $500 pool. But there’s a smaller one right? The [INAUDIBLE] where you are getting
up $800 by [INAUDIBLE] time.>>So in general it’s not a good idea to. [INAUDIBLE] says as a general rule
look down on people who [INAUDIBLE] at the top right? The whole goal of the [INAUDIBLE]
log is to bet a little, win a lot. The only way you can do that is
by betting long shots, right? So this kind of the first instance,
for me anyway, where it was clear that the culture
was really pushing the mathematics, it was kind of embedded in there, right? They would look down on you if
you were ever caught [INAUDIBLE]. I remember one day I was at
the seventh avenue location and I was just trying stuff out, I can and this
one race I battled the chalk and it won. And I kept on getting this weird
feeling and I looked to my side, and there was older men. It was just very weird and they were very.>>[LAUGH]
>>They did not like what I was doing in the least and it kind of showed that
there was something else going on. Andreas, yes,
there are many many upper cuts. We’ll talk mainly about these. We’ll get into the other
ones a little bit. There has been an increase in okay. Linda will get beat out if
that person Makes first place. A place that will pay up if a person
wins first or second place. A show bet will pay up if the horse
wins first, second, or third. So this is really important because people
misinterpret these bets all of the time. We’ll do this example real quick. When placing show bets for
this we have furling speed, fast familiar last Can the slope though
and we’re looking at the pools here. Right?
The wind pool, the place pool and the show pool. I’m not going to show
the actual calculations but if you do this right the one force wind,
it’s the last chance for second. Capacitor is third place. This is what the pay on sulphur weight. Now in the parentheses indicates
the actual value of what should happen, It’s always rounded to the nearest five
to zero cent, because that’s kind of the. There’s a technical term for it. I forgot it. But yeah, it’ll always reduce down to the. So you see here, Win, Place, and Show. And in general this is how it looks. We’ll see the example but early, if you had a dollar ticket,
and obviously would be $1.85. Place, $1.60. 2.05 for show. What’s funny there?>>Seems like Joe is>>[INAUDIBLE]
>>Some of that math problem [INAUDIBLE] yes.>>[LAUGH]
>>Yes there is something strange going on here right? With the $1 win method there’s
only one way to win with that. However, we only made $1.85 on our $1 win. $1 Show method there is actually three
ways to win Right the horse came first second or third. This kind of leads to our first real
misconception that a lot of people have. They think that these bets are for
that specific race and not the ones above. Right?
This happens quite often and this is actually an actual
technical term in the stock market>>Called arbitrage. Arbitrage for investments
are the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset in order to profit
from a difference in the price. So if exactly what we’re doing, right? We’re not buying and selling this thing
immediately, what’s actually happening is we have something from the same price,
but different risk bluffs, right? Different risk of not winning or
winning [INAUDIBLE] so whenever this thing happens, trend two. Win, place, and show pools should all
be proportional to each other, right? If a horse is a favorite to win,
you should see their, you know, show pool being kind
of the favorite, as well, right? Because that’s proportional. If it’s not,
then you get a situation like. Like this, right? Where that show pool
was really under that. So that shouldn’t more of that. So this leads us to our trend
two with the show pool, under that as we saw on
the show pool in Yeah?>>So the reason that the show
pool was overvalued, or under bet, is the people doing the betting.>>Exactly.>>Some of the public did not realize
what was going on, it’s not [INAUDIBLE]>>No, no, no, no. We’ll talk about the track’s
involvement a little later on, but yet, that’s kind of the core issue here,
we’re betting against other people, and their misconceptions of what these bets
may or may not [INAUDIBLE] So that’s kind of the core idea, we’re betting against
everyone else and their information. For this, does that answer the question?>>Yes [INAUDIBLE].>>This is kind of a you see a long
shot being in the show pool, you may want to consider pushing that up,
right? If everyone thinks it’s going to win
third place, well potentially awesome, getting excited for and third or first,
that’s [INAUDIBLE] it’s possible. Are there more bets? Yes exotics. Exotics are getting a little
bit more into the weed, so I’m not going to go too far into this. I’m going to focus on exacta and trifecta. Exacta is exactly that, you’re the first
and second course in that order. Okay, so you’re getting a little bit
more specific in what your bets are. There’s the trifecta, first,
second, and third place. There’s also a super-fecta, first,
second, third, and fourth place. These dollar bets and $0.10 bets are
basically kind of the average amount that you spend on those, and
how much they cost for each one of those. However, just taking one of these
bets isn’t really a good idea. So let’s say we have a dollar exactly on
1 and 3, 1 has to win first place and 3 has to win second place, and
you only have a single dollar to bet. However, it’s this idea of
boxing these things in. Boxing these things thinks as I don’t use
any of these horses in any order, right. So I’m betting not just on one three,
but also thee and four, right. So here we have two dollar bets for
your dollar. And you vouch trying to get some more and
more involve right? What are the exact amounts on one two and
three? Would be six dollar amounts. Right?
So six dollar increments. And dollar trifecta on one, three,
two would be just that order right? Not lost [INAUDIBLE] status one,
three- Two, however, if we do decide to do that,
trifecta box and 132 is $6 right? [INAUDIBLE] $6 [INAUDIBLE] Does
that make sense, a little bit? Okay, good. Can you guys do an exact dollars box on 1,
2, 3, and 4? You thought you could. I was talking to my math instructor, you’re not respecting math
questions in all this? [LAUGH] Come on.>>It’s full math.>>Okay.
[LAUGH] Why is it?>>4 times the percentage.>>She did it so
quickly and so efficiently, mainly because there’s a whole branch of
math called combinatorics Okay, peep this actual counting market and stuff is a huge
part of Palbaline statistics, all right? If you’re interested in that please,
please, please take statistics for any of those classes that we have
on offer because they’re great. Okay, if you can imagine this gets harrier
when you add more four horses, right? Dollar on five horses would be 60 bucks. On seven horses would be $210.00. At 10 cents per however,
would only be $2.40. Is this likely to happen, do you think? I don’t think so, right? I mean you’re looking for
the one, two, three, and four horses to get first,
second, third, and fourth, right? You’re getting very specific
in your prediction there. Overall though, this is one more typical, [INAUDIBLE] kind of that in general,
what we do is we say. One, three, zero [INAUDIBLE] for
the one, three [INAUDIBLE] win first. And then one, three,
five versus the third, second to [INAUDIBLE] one,
three, five, six to win third. And then we say b of all. So all address in that last one. So we don’t know, right? That’s.
[INAUDIBLE] I would really recommend, this is for future, when you kind of feel more confident and
comfortable with this stuff. This is not right away, all right?>>[LAUGH]
>>Don’t try to do this. Actually, please do
because then [INAUDIBLE].>>[LAUGH]
>>So what do these things look like? This is from the recent an American
of one with the whole thing. This is a typical, kind of a tilt screen. On the screen because, A is a nice colic. You can see here, in barrow 1,
on a $2 bet, $7.80, right? Place bet, show bet. And, this is probably what
it should look like, right? This proportional going down. On average, winning bets on a $2 bet,
we’re going to give this $2.10, and come back $20. On average earned, two dollars and ten cents is the minimum that must
be paid out on almost all cracks. Sometimes what happens is that the amount
spent on one course is more than all the other courses combined. So they have to instill this minimum so that we’re actually now
losing money [INAUDIBLE]. Place bets,
obviously going to go down a little bit. Averaging, kind of level out to dollars,
so that’s [INAUDIBLE] $10. You can see here down below, $2 is that
one, $2 price jacked up super there. A lot more money right? And on average, and when you start to win maybe
considerably more on these other apps. These numbers that I regretfully
came up with what I kind of assume then in the past this averages each
tract of these piece of information when you buy their initial programs. This is from the fourth
meadows [INAUDIBLE] Okay. [INAUDIBLE]
The more specific your bet, the lower the odds. But hopefully,
the higher the payoff, right? But it all depends. It all depends on are you
betting with the chalk, or are you betting against the chalk? If you agree with that chalk. Rich, okay. If you kind of looked at all
the variables and things, yeah, this horse is going to win. You’d use that with a few launch apps,
right, that will help kind of increase
your payout hopefully. If you use don’t use it in a right, because hopefully you’ll be
able to get everyone else. Make sense? [NOISE] Okay kind of right. This relates to a it
natural investing rate. Risk and reward right? Do we want to be more risky or do we
want to be less risky with your money? Well you’re less risky with your money
your reward vein is lower right? And that happens as well, right? The more specific you are with your bets, the riskier they are and
potentially [INAUDIBLE]. This is from my friend Warren Buffett, risk comes from not knowing
what you are doing. Right now, you are at your riskiest,
all right. So be very careful when
you in a situation.>>[INAUDIBLE] again.>>Are there even more bets? Yes. It just kind of gets
crazier from here on out. These Daily Double, Pick 3,
Pick 4, Pick 5/6/7. These are not within one race,
these are now across multiple races. So this gets pretty
complicated after a while. Daily Double is essentially, you’re
are picking the winners of one race and then, the race right out, right? So two races,
you’re trying to pick the winner. Pick three, you’re trying to get
the winner in three sequential races. Pick four, four, and five,
six, and seven, those are our kind of promotional type things that
we do and it’s very, very difficult. Either that or people kind of do
their own things sometimes right. They might [INAUDIBLE] And then three horses win the second race,
right so they’re in the best [INAUDIBLE] as well. Okay. So we talked about what all these
bets are, well how do you decide? How do you decide what
bet to make in general? Well, you can do that with information. You can do that with information
from a variety of sources and we’ll talk about two of
these as we go through. First up, morning line odds. So, morning line odds. At each race track,
there’s what’s called an oddsmaker. All right. Let’s remember. [INAUDIBLE] trying to get
your people [INAUDIBLE]. So they make this, they have this odds
maker, basic [INAUDIBLE] to view stuff, trying to estimate odds and
things [INAUDIBLE] near the race itself. A lot of people think odds makers are trying to
predict the race itself. That is not the case. Odds makers are trying to predict what
the betting public will be doing, okay. They try to predict what at the very
end are those actually going to be? So, they’re trying to follow along
what each are going to do, all right.>>That almost seems harder. [INAUDIBLE]
>>Yes. It’s exactly that.>>[LAUGH]
>>Right? Because they couldn’t probably
better than anyone else, right? But that’s not their task, their task is
trying to figure out what are the actual at the end of the race
based on people betting. That is my by the way.>>[INAUDIBLE]
>>Yeah, all right. So how bout Oz, right? So that’s the track kind
of provided information, there’s also past performances
of the horses themselves. When you go to a track you can buy
an official program, you can also buy this the daily recent form, this has past
performances on a lot of different horses. You can see here,
there’s a lot of information. Basically, up here at the very top
this is the misinformation itself and that for each course it will have
the same kind of block of text and we’ll talk about what all of these are. But one thing I want to look at right now
is each of these rows down below, right, this first one says 15 Feb 10th. 15th of February 2010, they ran this race. Okay?
And it tells you all the information about the times of the race,
the race type, fractional positions, the weights of the jockey,
the actual odds, a one off. And also what I think
is kind of interesting, over here it actually tells you of
the other horses that rant hat race. So a lot of people take stock into the
fact that hey if this horse already beat this horse that it beat now, there might
be like some horse psychology going on.>>[LAUGH]
>>I don’t know much about that quite honestly, but there is lots
of start thinking about here. I’ll share the link of where
this presentation is at. The internet before, they actually have a
little animation that will go through and tell you all of that focus
information are as well. From our investment friends,
past performance is not [INAUDIBLE] turns, this is common in exam prospectus for
good investments, right. SCC then says hey, you can get other
things as well, so especially the age and size of the fund,
the funds distant volatility and recent changes in the funds operation. So yeah, you’re worried about the company
itself and how it’s structured. We’re all worried about the horse,
and it’s fast right? So you’re also concerned about
the people around this, right? Who is the CEO of this company now, right? Who is the trainer of this horse? One thing I look at to push a little bit. Horses, I have seen anyway,
something that’s called performances. So I do need to get a little technical. This little column of numbers
here starts off with 62, and then 84, 86, 93, 91, 89, 91, 101, 88, 80, and 94. These are with all the buyer’s race
leaders in this race this horse. I guess in the 70’s they established
some way to kind of average speeds irrespective of horse, race, cut type,
a lot of other variables as well. So they had a weighted average of
all these things is this P number. You can see here, discover kind of
goes up and it kind of goes down. Right? After the 101 bar, the next race
was considerably lower, right? It was lower than almost any of
the other races, or lower than what? One, two, three,
four previous races that he ran. So that’s going to you see is that cycle during the performances
just like any performance, right? Race a really fast race one day, the next
day you might not be as fast, right? So this is a personal trend, there
are some analytics about all this stuff, you can find it online. But this is something I
kind of look at for myself. Ok, owner information,
you want to know who this owner is, right? because they actually I own a lot of
great horses on, here for the DRF anyway, this paper, they don’t have a whole
lot of information about it but the actual program from the race track
itself they have more information. There’s also the trainer themselves, that information can be found
up here in this little area. What’s kind of interesting is that in the
parentheses here they’re telling you how many races has the horses for
this trainer started this, one, and then got second place and
third place and their overall percentage. The way this works is tracks
will have different Right equal. [INAUDIBLE] And over the speed you’ll kind of calculate the actual
[INAUDIBLE] of the jockey as well. And over time okay you know
the ratio is stable, right? [INAUDIBLE] Jockey’s performance
is important as well, you can see that over here. Was the horse can carry a jockey,
but a jockey can’t carry a horse. So even if the donkey is great,
if the horse is really about that [INAUDIBLE]. the track and the race itself. So, this is Richmond found
in this little area here. For the passable. For the current rates this actually tells us all the information
about the current race. The length of it, right,
what type of race, ignitions for entering the race itself. A little out of the comfort zone,
I don’t want to get into it too much But also you know this is
information about the race. What about the track condition itself,
right? Track conditions vary
from what they call fast. These are the actual stuff really
you know is the ground really kind of packed in right? Is it looking like running
on it pretty quickly. Is it wet right?
Is the course mud or Is it a turf race? Turf races in general have
different types of consideration. This also is called synthetic turf. There’s been problems with that
with some slipping on that terrain. Trying to figure out ways to figure
out ways to solve that issue. I don’t [INAUDIBLE]
There’s also this. This is [INAUDIBLE] Basically chariots. [INAUDIBLE] This is a whole different
world [INAUDIBLE] Two, two and a half miles or so, and
a little bit slower obviously, right? Because they’re pulling
all of this [INAUDIBLE]. In general, legs range depends on
what kind of horses you’re racing. The problem is, is a lot of whats
called fourth horse racing, for three hundred to four hundred yards. Standard are between four furlongs. There’s eight furlongs to a mile. And then theres also high stakes. So the triple crown goes Kentucky Derby,
Preakness, then Belmont City. Belmont City is the longest of these, almost three to four
weeks to beat each other. That’s really pushing it for
a lot of these horses. And so the wind for
it will count it as it was done recently. That’s a pretty basic. I myself when I lived with New York
every year we would go and it was a really crazy experience. Going to the Belmont stakes. You would have people who would be
stooping looking for tickets and everything but then we would have
form It’s past [INAUDIBLE] right. So it really does appear to have
select really very cultural. There’s also professional, so when I went to Portland on the 31st
I got this little pen cap from Bob. And Bob is one of the craps stewards there
and he releases his own little picks and what you should [INAUDIBLE] for each race. This kind of leads to some weird stuff,
right? Because everyone else also
has this information. So do you go with this expert,right? You go with everyone else and
what they may be following? Or do you kind of go the other way? There are also reading horses themselves,
if you are around horses and you have a lot about there behavior what they look
like, or should look like, you can also kind of read them, there’s two places you
can do that there is the paddock area. So before a race they’ll actually On
the path, and all of the saddles, and get the jockey on. And that’s usually right around that area. There’s also called the post-breed. So as they go out onto the track, we’re going to move around and
kind of get ready. If the horses are looking really slow and
jumpy, you’ll want to bet on those. If they’re looking over-anxious,
you know, sweating a lot. There’s a lot to it. Also how does the horse interact
with jockies as well right? I myself, I don’t do this a lot. My wife on the other hand this is the way
she really does this since her family has had horses in the past, and so
she’s really good about looking at and what horse. As of information,
there is also this information. Touting is kind of the general idea you
are sharing this information to increase your payouts, right? This happens a lot between
people whispering things on the track to a little
bit more involved scams. Unfortunately I’m running
a little low on time so I’m not going to go
through this whole scam. I love scams like all that stuff like
how that happens, how that works. But basically I wanted to
say that someone sends a random selection of people
these different picks. They said each can Right? Before a race. After the race, one of these
groups have to be right, right? One of these groups has to have
the winner, so then they kind of disregard these other people and
start anew, with the new race, right? They say hey look person
we sent you two picks in a row that were correct never mind
all the other people, [INAUDIBLE]. He owed money for that system. He worked really big
techniques that are in square. This happened a lot during the 1920s,
during the stock market, but it happens now, even more efficiently,
because we don’t have to worry about stamps and letters and more,
just send an email, right? [INAUDIBLE] through DRF or anywhere else. [INAUDIBLE] So
because of this [INAUDIBLE] environment, and don’t want to share this
you have to get this for me, I want you to picture
your favorite spot. Kayak and stuff. He’s not telling you anything. Whatever, like any of your people. If you kind of, you’re around long enough
you show up you may find his nelson. I myself I went to New York I
just like the environment. I just kind of moved around too much
different homes close to anyone but it does how. So even if I pick a winner I’m still
not guaranteed to be returned, right? Because I’m betting with the chomp I’m
not going to be getting a whole lot of money back out. That’s the point. That’s the whole thing. Cash to the bets, can’t use them with
horses, with psychology of people around us, we have to take all three
of these things into consideration. This is really what this is about. This leads to a very good, I don’t know. Personally, I kind of always just
invested in contrarian investing, forgot there’s one so I’ll.>>[LAUGH]
>>In fact [INAUDIBLE] psychologist plus, but I feel like as stated,
a contrarian believes that certain behavior among investors
can lead into [INAUDIBLE]. For example, a lot of pessimism about
a stock can drive the prices so low that it overstates
the company’s risks. It understates its prospects for returning
to it’s profitablities, all right? I feel like that’s what
we’re looking at here. We’re trying to figure out
what this [INAUDIBLE]. Two things that I really follow. If a horses most recent race
was its fastest in general, I’m not going to bet on him, right? Everyone else might believe, hey,
that’s a really fast horse, I’m going to. We saw before this trending fair, also if
a horse didn’t finish its last race for whatever reason, sometimes horses
will literally go off the track and do whatever wants to do,
you know, who knows. Right? You don’t really have a lot of
information about that so you pay Okay, one who moderates. Yeah. [INAUDIBLE] Okay, so this was [INAUDIBLE]. So, that was a little dark. Sorry. So this is what the screen looks
like when you’re at a track or doing telecasting this weekend. You’ll see here natural course numbers,
numbers one through 13. Usually this color is [INAUDIBLE] setting. This column are the odds for
the all right. They’re not an average even, it’s through itself where people kind
of take it as that. There is scratches horse a scratch. The main other thing I want to
share is the MTR is zero right now because the race is about to start. This is the Mitsfer race and this particularly tells us
how much time we have left. There have been some studies done that say
about 50% of all the bets in a race will happen in the last 15
minutes up until the race. So we have a weird situation here. So as time goes on closer to the race,
we get more and more information about the player and
what those look like. So, yeah, there’s actual real incentive to
wait to the last minute to make you bet.>>Look Who’s Talking
is the product of two>>Yeah.>>And we’re off. He’s coming from the outside, Paraol’es there between horses and
rock solid golfer in the fourth spot. [INAUDIBLE] closely racing in fifth
along the holidays, also on the hunt in phase two and now the green horn
holidays going, so we’ll try to sort out. It’s only five blocks and
side by side, Alex is the. Ten lines will cover that there’s
Rock Solid in front, Rock Solid ahead.>>When he refers to lengths,
it’s of a horse length that’s [INAUDIBLE] you know [INAUDIBLE] Blake will be using. [INAUDIBLE] How far
someone is from the lead. What’s going to happen here is that
they’re going to turn the track. And you can imagine if you have
two circles of different radius. One in the outside circle is going to need
more distance than the one on the inside. So there’s a real kind of push to
get everyone closer to the rail. Are going the least amount of distance around.>>Has moved to second outside. [INAUDIBLE] And that’s the Mojo Ragging Networking
from last. 23 and 4’s open four. 47 and 1 with the half mile. Coming to the top of the stretch
Home Before the Holidays, just narrowly on the outside
is Look Who’s Talking. At the rail, Rock Solid Golfer,
ring along the same base. Ringo Just Patience just on.>>So now that they’re swung out past
the turn and the white house outside and now it’s charged, kind of charged.>>And switching the day light to outside,
someone out in the clear and now comes Miranda road and
victor corsco and Ringaro takes off,
[INAUDIBLE] Ringaro suddenly bursts away. But look whose talking,
but Nalia is heading up to second and running hat trick, to win by 6 going away and its
>>So, there is even more of
an analysis you can do. This is an example of what’s
called a stalker horse right? It’s the wait around,
kind of waited and waited, bided its time a little bit an then at
the very end kind of pushed forward. There’s also a horse called Fast Steve
which is where you try to get really far ahead of everyone and just
keep that up ahead of everyone obviously. So yeah, there’s a lot more different
types of analysis you can do with a lot of this stuff. You might want to ask the question
well where can do this at? Right down south, Horton Meadows is great. It’s available to us. Unfortunately there’s only four libraries
can say this during the weekends of this session. The Mondays and
Tuesdays because they think a lot of tell. The big class so smaller classes that way. There’s also we’ll talk about it more. If you are of age and don’t mind
a seedier location, there’s Rialto’s in Downtown Portland, and I noticed there’s
also Irish Town Public House here in Vancouver, they have
a terminal you can go to. If Internet things are more your thing, there’s also lots of [INAUDIBLE]
as well. Okay, I’m almost out of time, two more
things from me, one more thing from. First off, just remember the only rule
you need when it comes to gambling you never bet on scared money, all right. I want no one coming out here
thinking I’ll make lots of money and it’ll be great. You will only get yourself in trouble. All right, so keep your red money
where it is don’t pull it it out, you know follow me [INAUDIBLE]. I would also recommend the first
time you go don’t make a bet, don’t actually do any gambling, you have
plenty of time to lose your money people. Keep it to yourself for a little bit. And just enjoy the experience, right? I really recommend going to the practice
cell because that can be a lot of fun. It can also feel a little weird, right? You leave with people you
might not normally leave with. And so that’s where Jenna Spring says
when you go into a new situation, watch what everyone else is doing, right? That’s true for [INAUDIBLE] we
go to a new place, we watch what everyone else is doing,
all of their right? We might [INAUDIBLE] All right,
that’s it for me.>>[COUGH]
>>Yeah?>>Okay, so [INAUDIBLE] everybody has their own number
>>For what is this? What does that tell us? Is that a break from the past?>>Yeah, so there’s actually, my understanding is that those
are actually the post debates, right? Whatever. So one is on the inside of your house. I think it’s basically a water system
of a submergence system as well.>>[INAUDIBLE].
>>It’s yeah, there’s some evidence to that. But yeah, you’re right. You change every singe race. Jockeys will finish with their race,
each race during the day. Different races as well. Yes.>>Two things, one shout out to Portland
Meadows, it was fun library seeing day. And not that sketchy.>>No.
>>But it used to be sketchier. They’ve worked hard. They have a nice garden now. You’ll find people that
you normally see in.>>Books.
>>But my question is, you talked about this, like somehow the public is under betting the show.>>Yeah.
>>I wonder where you find those odds? I’ve only ever seen the odds right
now that are the [INAUDIBLE] odds.>>Right. So yeah this is definitely not
really public information. This is for real, right? They will cycle through the rules and
stuff. Try to show those as they go on. If you really want that information,
what you actually have to do, and there’s two ways of doing that. One, there’s usually a terminal station
you can rent at every tribe location->>[CROSSTALK] what those guys were doing.>>Exactly, yeah. Those guys were sitting there
with the little screens, right? They are [INAUDIBLE] that little spot.>>[INAUDIBLE] And they’re getting a lot
of other information that you may not. Also, some places may have
like an [INAUDIBLE] something. [INAUDIBLE] Actually pull the data from,
as well. And see what the actual are. Yeah, so. [INAUDIBLE], right? [INAUDIBLE] All right, yeah?>>What is the difference between [INAUDIBLE]
>>[LAUGH]>>Yeah. What is there to say? He’s great, he’s awesome. I said to you the perfect
combination of right, like kind of push people around and
smack them around, but like he knows enough to be cultured
and how to behave around certain.>>[LAUGH]
>>All right everybody, thank you all for coming. I appreciate it.>>[APPLAUSE]
>>Thank you everyone. Cover your weekends. I look forward to seeing you on
December 4th for the summer series. And then look for,
in winter quarter, [INAUDIBLE]. The winter quarter, and I think that it
will be kind of [INAUDIBLE] some more ideas for the [INAUDIBLE] as well. And I’ll be looking for
other people as well. Thank you again.

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